Iran boasts of "new chapter" in region after US "failure"

BarcelonaTwo months after the start of the war, Iran has welcomed a "new chapter" in the Persian Gulf. Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has broken his usual silence and, through a statement, has predicted a "brilliant" future for the region after the "shameful defeat" of the United States. "A new chapter is being written for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz," he assures in the message, broadcast by state media. "By the power and might of God, the brilliant future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the United States and in the service of the progress, well-being, and prosperity of its nations," he adds.

The assessment made by the Iranian leader on the war, on the occasion of Persian Gulf Day – celebrated every April 30 – is forceful: he said that the American bases in the region are not capable of guaranteeing their own security or that of their allies in the region, and that the rules that Tehran is preparing to manage the strait (and charge a toll for ships transiting through it) will be a source of "comfort and progress".

On the other hand, he referred to the nuclear and armament issue, one of the key topics in the negotiation with the United States, and which was Donald Trump's pretext for starting the war. In two months of conflict, Iran has not had to make any concessions regarding its capacity to obtain the atomic bomb. On the contrary. Khamenei has boasted and assured that Iran will closely protect its nuclear and missile capabilities, and has underlined that Iranians consider them "their national capital" and will protect them "like the maritime, land, and air borders".

For two months, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked the supply of oil and gas, consequently causing fears of a global economic recession, which is already deeply damaging the American economy. Meanwhile, efforts to resolve the conflict are completely stalled. Although the ceasefire has remained in effect since April 8, Iran continues to block the strait in response to the American blockade of its ports.

Faced with this scenario, on the other side of the Atlantic, the White House is looking for some effect to unblock the situation. As Axios has reported, Donald Trump is seriously considering resuming attacks, either to try to break the stalemate in negotiations or to advance the military offensive. The US president is expected to hold a briefing with Centcom commander Admiral Brad Cooper on the military options the US has in Iran.

Axios has leaked three of the options that will be presented to the president. The first is a plan for a wave of "short and powerful" attacks against Iran, including attacks on infrastructure, with the hope that Iran will return to the negotiating table with more flexibility on the nuclear issue. The second option would be to forcibly take control of part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial navigation. And the third proposal would be an operation by US special forces to control Iran's highly enriched uranium reserves.

Axios sources assure that Trump currently considers his main negotiating asset to be the naval blockade he is applying against Iran, but that he would consider military action if Tehran still does not yield.

In response to the leak, Iran said this Thursday that if Washington resumes the offensive, even if it is limited, it will respond with more "long and painful attacks" against American positions, according to a senior official of the Revolutionary Guard, cited by state media.

More pressure for Trump

This dialectical struggle has had an immediate impact on the markets: as soon as these war plans were leaked, on Wednesday night, the price of oil soared. Brent crude, a benchmark in the United States, exceeded 126 dollars per barrel, although it later fell to 113 dollars.

Meanwhile, rising prices fuel the political wear and tear of the White House. The unpopularity of the war has become a major burden for a Trump who sees his popularity plummeting, eroded by an unsustainable cost of living and gasoline prices that voters directly blame him for. With the legislative elections just six months away, Republicans are beginning to fear they will lose their majority in Congress.

All of this adds even more pressure to the American president, who is approaching a deadline. On Friday, he will exceed the sixty days established by the War Powers Act to maintain military action without congressional authorization. Once this period expires, the president will have to submit the war to a vote in the House or request an extension.

To all this, another discordant actor is added: Israel, which this very Thursday has warned that it could act again "soon" against Iran. The Hebrew Defense Minister, Israel Katz, has said that he supports the efforts of the United States but that they may reconsider resuming the offensive against Iran "to ensure the achievement of the objectives." The government of Benjamin Netanyahu, who travels to Washington next week, already frustrated the ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran when it continued to attack Lebanon despite having committed not to do so. Despite the current truce in Lebanon, Israel has continued to attack the country, where this Thursday it caused the death of 16 people.