Germany, from war trauma to leading Europe's rearmament and war economy

BrusselsGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz emerged almost unscathed from his visit to the White House and Donald Trump did not humiliate him as he had previously done with the president of Ukraine or, for example, the president of South Africa. However, the New York tycoon was the protagonist of an awkward moment when, in one of his usual attempts at joking, he touched on one of the most painful traumas of German society: the Nazi regime.

The President of the United States he ironized about fear to a Germany with great military power. "It's good that [Germany is rearming] to a certain extent, but there will come a time when we will say enough, if you don't mind. We will be watching them," said Trump, who tried to fix it with a friendly punch to Merz's thigh while the German was seen shifting in his chair, not knowing quite how to react.

Although it is only an anecdote, Trump inadvertently made it clear that Germany is fighting the ghosts of its past and that, in the current context, it is clear that it now wants to recover its military capabilities. In this way, it wants to contribute to the defense of Europe against the threat posed by Vladimir Putin's expansionist regime and gain autonomy in security matters with respect to the United States, which it has stopped considering a reliable partner. In fact, it is one of the European partners that intends to rearm at a faster pace and Merz confirmed at the ceremony of the 70th anniversary of Germany's membership in NATO that they would reach 3.5% of the gross domestic product in military expenditure in 2029. That is, even before of the deadlines of the Atlantic Alliance.

"Clearly, this represents a change in mentality," summarizes Karel Lannoo, head of the European research center CEPS, in a conversation with ARA. In this regard, the expert notes that both the Conservatives and the Social Democrats are committed to rearming at a forced pace, a view shared by a large part of German society. Even the German Greens are in favor of increasing their defense capabilities, a position that contrasts with other left-wing parties in southern Europe.

Garvan Walshe, a research associate at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, points out that Germany substantially reduced military spending since the end of the Cold War and has only recently decided to increase it again. During these years, the expert points out that Berlin was able to reduce the money it allocated to defense, lower taxes, and convert the war industry to a civilian one, especially the automobile industry. Now, however, Walshe asserts that the process is being reversed and, in the midst of the crisis in the combustion engine industry, Germany's "economic structure" is changing, once again promoting arms factories and dual-use civilian and military products.

The researcher points out that the geopolitical shift has come at an "opportune moment" for Germany. German industry, which depended on Russian gas, has been severely affected by the war in Ukraine: it has lost competitiveness and is also falling behind in the race for electric cars. Thus, Berlin can kill two birds with one stone and, as Walshe emphasizes, can rearm to increase its security and, at the same time, revive its industrial muscle and the German economy, which is experiencing anemic growth and is emerging with difficulty from the recession.

A key boost for Europe's rearmament

Germany is the largest country and the industrial engine of the continent. Its decision to rearm at forced marches is key for Europe, both for practical purposes and for the political message it sends. In fact, Merz was the leader who proclaimed that Europe should become "independent" from the United States, especially in matters of defense. And, although transatlantic relations have improved in recent days, Walshe assures that the desire for European autonomy "remains the same."

However, researcher Lannoo warns that Europe currently "does not have the infrastructure" to achieve this independence from the United States, since the Pentagon "will not allow NATO to be lost" and the European Union is "above all a trade organization" but lacks security powers. "I am in favor of creating a new project that allows Europe to decide on its security," the expert concludes.