From the photo with Netanyahu to sanctions against Israel: the EU's evolution on Gaza

BrusselsTwo images summarize the EU's developments regarding the Gaza war. The first photo is a few days after the Hamas attack October 7, 2023. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, traveled to Israel to meet with Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, and vehemently asserted Israel's right to defend itself.

A move by the two conservative leaders that was heavily criticized by the most pro-Palestinian voices in the European Union. Tel Aviv had already announced the first major offensive against civilians in Gaza in response, and it took Von der Leyen weeks to remind Netanyahu that he must also comply with international and humanitarian law, as the rest of the community leaders were already doing.

The second moment is Von der Leyen's in this Wednesday's State of the Union address in the European Parliament, which kicked off the political course of the European institutions. It is, therefore, quite a declaration of intent. The German conservative proposed for the first time sanctions against Israel, such as adding the "most radical ministers" of Netanyahu's government and violent settlers in the West Bank to the EU blacklist, the "partial suspension" of the association agreement between the European bloc and Israel, or cutting off some of the Holocaust funding that Tel Aviv receives.

This time, the tidal surge against Von der Leyen has shifted. Most of the progressive forces supported her, as did her own party, the European People's Party (PP). However, the Christian Democrats did not expect the president of the European Commission to make such an announcement and adopt such an unusually harsh tone against Netanyahu. For this reason, more than half of the German delegation of the European People's Party (PP) broke voting discipline and on Thursday voted in the European Parliament against the non-binding resolution supporting von der Leyen's sanctions against Israel.

Von der Leyen's change of heart is a major symptom of the European Union's evolution toward more pro-Palestinian positions and more critical of Netanyahu. However, the shift has not only been seen in Brussels, but also in the EU Council (the body representing the Member States) and the European Parliament.

More pressure on Netanyahu

The first meeting of heads of state and EU presidents since the start of the Gaza war did not even agree to call for a "ceasefire" on both sides, but "humanitarian pauses". However, over time, the voices of historically more pro-Israeli member states, such as Germany, Austria, and Hungary, gave way and accepted the introduction of the demand for "a ceasefire" and, later, "an immediate ceasefire."

These timid calls for peace had no effect on Tel Aviv, and in fact, Netanyahu has always acted as if he could bear any request from the EU, which has led more and more countries to choose to reinforce sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Israel. Last May, they took a decision that once seemed impossible: the qualified majority agreement to revise the EU's association agreement with Israel, which establishes priority economic and political dialogue between the two parties.

However, many member states are also not satisfied and are calling for further action. Some countries, such as Spain, Belgium, Ireland, and Slovenia, have announced and are already implementing individual sanctions against the Israeli government and state, and are gaining support for replicating these restrictions across the European Union as a whole. It should be remembered that the European Union is Israel's main trading partner and supplies it with around 30% of its imported weapons, although at the European level there has been no talk of an arms freeze. Therefore, the bloc's leverage on Netanyahu could be decisive.

The main obstacle to the success of von der Leyen's proposals is that any sanctions against another country must have the unanimous approval of all 27 member states, and therefore, Germany and the other more pro-Israeli countries could veto them again. However, even Germany is showing signs of exhaustion regarding Tel Aviv. A change in stance by Germany, the largest and most influential country in the bloc, could be decisive in whether the EU's shift toward more pro-Palestinian positions translates into concrete measures that directly affect Netanyahu's government.