France already has a budget, but will this save the government?

ParisThree months later of his appointment as French Prime MinisterSébastien Lecornu has achieved what the two previous prime ministers failed to do: pass the budget and provide a degree of political stability in France. His arrival as prime minister It was very controversialBut he has been able—against all odds—to provide the country with a budget essential for its economic stability and to avoid a vote of no confidence. The two motions rejected Monday night by the National Assembly were the final obstacle for the budget. "We can turn the page," summarized a Macronist deputy.

After surviving ten votes of no confidence in three months, the survival of Lecornu and his government, at least in the medium term, seems guaranteed. This (fragile) political truce is the prime minister's greatest achievement, a figure very close to Emmanuel Macron and apparently without presidential ambitions. "I am a soldier-monk," he has said on more than one occasion, referring to his vocation of service to the country and loyalty to the President of the Republic. In fact, Years before becoming head of the French government, he almost became a monk

Approving the budget means that, barring any surprises, Lecornu can continue as prime minister until the next legislative elections, which are expected to be after next year's presidential elections. That is, if the president decides to keep him in office. The prime minister's victory gives Macron—who backed him against all odds—some breathing room and allows for a boost of activity in the National Assembly, which has been heavily focused on the budget with interminable debates. There are pending laws on the table, such as those concerning euthanasia and the agricultural sector.

Ignoring the far right

Unlike his two predecessors, Michel Barnier and François Bayrou, two politicians with more political experience than the current prime minister, Lecornu decided to ignore Marine Le Pen's far-right stance and instead forge a pact with the Socialists to try and pass the budget. The gamble paid off. Barnier and Bayrou, on the other hand, made the mistake of looking to the far right, a partner that is always opportunistic and unpredictable. However, to call it a success would be an exaggeration. The victory—as he himself acknowledged—has a bitter taste. Lecornu managed to pass the budget, but he did so by breaking the promises he had made. When he was appointed, he spoke of governing differently, opening the door to dialogue and consensus, and pledged not to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, a tool that allows the government to pass important laws without submitting them to a vote in the National Assembly. Ultimately, faced with the risk of losing the vote, he opted to pass the 2026 budget by invoking Article 49.3. Just like their predecessors had done.

"It's a triple failure," he points out. Le MondeThe newspaper refers to the three commitments Lecornu has failed to uphold: not to invoke Article 49.3, to approve the budget before December 31, and to bring the deficit below 5% of GDP by the end of this year. To avoid a vote of no confidence, the Prime Minister has had to make concessions to the Socialists that involve spending more than planned, meaning the deficit is not expected to fall below 5%. Lecornu ignored marathon budget debates in the Assembly to ultimately reach a political agreement to avoid a vote of no confidence, in exchange for measures such as suspending pension reforms and denying MPs their vote. "This budget, negotiated partly outside the chamber during closed-door meetings between the government and some political groups, temporarily calms the markets, but resolves nothing fundamental," the article states critically. Le Monde.

Political stability

Certainly, the government remains in the minority in the National Assembly and will face the same difficulties in passing the 2026 budget. However, the threat of legislative elections is receding, and there is a greater sense of political stability than before. In any case, the coming year, leading up to the presidential elections scheduled for spring 2027, will not be easy for either Macron or Lecornu. Several politicians are poised to enter the presidential race, and they will not make things easy for the government. Among the potential presidential candidates, such as the conservative former minister Bruno Retailleau or the former prime minister Édouard Philippe, there is a fear that Lecornu, who has always boasted of not having great political ambitions, might change his mind at the last minute and decide to be the successor candidate. In French politics, nothing can be ruled out.