The fifth French prime minister to resign in two years: what now?

Barcelona/ParisSébastien Lecornu has decided to resign as Prime Minister of France.He did so the day after appointing the new French government and just 27 days after taking office. These are record numbers in the country's history, which has already seen five prime ministers change office in less than two years. What will happen now? Why do heads of government end up leaving office? What options does President Emmanuel Macron have?

Who chooses the prime minister?

The first thing to keep in mind is that France is a semi-presidential republic. This means that, on the one hand, citizens directly vote for their president, who is elected in a two-round election for the next five years. Currently, the president and head of state is Emmanuel Macron, who In April 2022 he was re-elected to the position and thus began his second term.

The president, who is also the head of the armed forces, is the highest authority in the country. He is responsible for choosing and appointing the prime minister and, at his suggestion, the members of the French government. Since May 2022, Macron has appointed five prime ministers, all of whom have ultimately folded: Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, Michel Barnier, François Bayrou and Sébastien Lecornu.

Why is the French government failing again?

The main reason recent prime ministers have resigned is the composition of the National Assembly, in which Macron does not have a majority and which has the power to overthrow the prime minister, mainly through a vote of no confidence or a vote of confidence. legislative elections last year, which renewed the 577 deputies of the French lower house for the next five years, left a highly fragmented Assembly, with an unprecedented situation in the Fifth Republic: no group has a clear majority, which forces the search for majorities with the votes of different forces and complicates the formation of the government, which theoretically should be a reflection of the parliamentary majority.

Broadly speaking, the Assembly is divided into three large blocs: the left, the one that brings together the center and the right, and the far-right bloc. None of the three has a solid majority, but they do if the left and far-right combine their votes. In his second term, Macron always opted for prime ministers from the center-right bloc, who ended up ousted by the left and the far right. In the current Assembly, the left-wing parties have more than 190 deputies, the far right has 138 deputies, and Macron's coalition, Ensemble (in Catalan, "Ensemble"), has 138 deputies. together), 150. Macron has also sought the support of France's traditional right, now grouped under the banner of Els Republicans, but it only has 46 deputies in the National Assembly.

What options does Macron have now?

From there, President Macron has several options on the table. On the one hand, he could choose a new prime minister and task him with forming a new government. But the difficulty is finding a figure who won't be censured. The fact that there have been so many prime ministers in their second term indicates that this isn't easy. And here he could look once again to the right, opting once again for a Macronist, or relying on a name from the left, an option widely advocated by the parties of the progressive bloc. The problem is that he could also be quickly censured. An alternative—unlikely—would be to appoint a technocratic government to lead the country to the next elections.

On the other hand, and given the difficulties of appointing a prime minister who will remain in office, Macron also has the power to dissolve the National Assembly, call early legislative elections, and leave an alternative parliamentary majority in the hands of the ballot box, a mechanism he can only use once a year. This would be a risky option for Macron, especially given the current political and economic crisis in France, as it could further damage his party's representation in the chamber. Holding legislative elections could give victory to the far right.

The last scenario is President Macron's resignation, which would lead to the calling of presidential elections first and, likely, legislative elections later. The National Assembly could also remove the president, and in fact, the party considered to be on the radical left, La França Insoumise (LFI), has submitted a motion for his impeachment. However, the procedure is complex and highly unlikely to succeed.