Europe bows to Trump and NATO agrees to 5% military spending cuts

HagueDonald Trump landed in the Netherlands at 7:36 p.m. on Tuesday and boarded Air Force One again at 5:58 p.m. on Wednesday. Arrive and grindIt took them less than 24 hours at the NATO summit in The Hague to force European allies to sign the agreement in which they commit to spending 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. However, it was a success that the New York tycoon would not have achieved without the invaluable collaboration of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "We have achieved a historic milestone," the US president said at a press conference.

In this way, Trump returns to the White House with 5% under his belt, a figure he has demanded and promised to achieve since returning to the White House. However, the agreement contains a catchy fine print: allies must allocate 3.5% of their GDP to hard weapons, such as tanks, missiles, soldiers, and ammunition, and 1.5% to security, which includes a broader concept and will include resources allocated to the fight against terrorism. According to NATO diplomatic sources, the vast majority of countries will automatically reach this 1.5% when the calculations are made.

This is a formula designed to please Trump—although it is actually an inflated 5%—and so that, at the same time, European partners do not have to spend as much money on defense as the Pentagon initially intended to impose. Also key is the deadline for partners to meet this percentage milestone: 2035. A much later date than the Pentagon intended to impose months ago, when it wanted to place it around 2032.

The level of commitment in the language of the conclusions ratified this Wednesday is also key. Finally, the text does not say that "all allies" are obligated to comply with the military spending percentages, but only "allies." Although this is a nuance, some of the European partners most reluctant to increase their defense spending to these levels, such as Spain, see the gap and interpret it as a more lax demand. "This is constructive ambiguity," according to sources at the Moncloa.

Beyond Spain, however, the vast majority of countries have committed to reaching the agreed spending rates in the coming years. In this regard, the NATO Secretary General cited up to eight partners that have recently announced or have committed to the Alliance to exceed 3.5% in spending on hard weapons. Among others, Rutte has highlighted Germany, which aims to join in 2029. At this point, however, the average spending rate of EU and NATO member states is around 2%, and therefore, on average, they are still far from the percentages agreed upon in The Hague.

The contradictions between Sánchez and Rutte

"There is an agreement [with Spain] not to agree on anything." This is how Rutte summarized the pact he theoretically reached with Sánchez in his final press conference. This definition is hardly surprising considering the constant contradictions between the Spanish Prime Minister and the NATO Secretary General.

Sánchez maintains that Rutte has granted him special "flexibility" and interprets that it doesn't need to reach 3.5%. Thus, the Socialist leader asserts that the Ministry of Defense estimates that with 2.1%, it can already achieve the Alliance's military capability objectives and has downplayed the percentages. "The key is not how much we are going to spend. An alliance is based on what capabilities each member state must contribute," he stated.

However, the US and NATO have corrected Spain's calculations, and Rutte has asserted that, like the 32 allies without exception, it will have to reach 3.5%. "Spain believes it can achieve the [NATO defense] capability targets with 2.1 percent. NATO is, in fact, convinced that Spain will have to spend 3.5 percent," he insisted at the summit's final press conference.

Some leaders have even mocked the Moncloa's metrics. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever asserted that if Sánchez manages to achieve the same military capability with less money than the rest of the allies, he is a "genius," one who would "inspire" the other partners. "NATO is not stupid," the Flemish leader emphasized.

So, beyond the different calculations of Sánchez and Rutte, the million-dollar question is: To what extent will Spain have to comply with the 5% military spending?

First of all, it's worth remembering that this is an agreement and a political commitment. There is no court that, in the event of non-compliance, can force the State to increase the money it allocates to defense, as could occur within the framework of the European Union. Therefore, the obligation to achieve goals is relative and depends primarily on diplomatic pressure, especially from the United States.

In this regard, it's worth remembering that Trump has on more than one occasion threatened to leave countries that do not comply with minimum military spending in the event of an attack and to respect Article 5 of the Alliance treaties, which establishes that if an ally is attacked, the attack is considered an attack. And, this Wednesday, the New York magnate's threats went further, and he asserted that he will make Spain pay "double" through trade relations between the US and the State. So, while the commitment is only political, diplomatic pressure is aggressive and difficult to avoid, especially with Trump in the White House.