Drones: The Future of Warfare Dominated by China
In 2016, when I was working as a correspondent in China, several of us journalists were invited to visit the facilities of DJI, the world's largest drone company, expanding its business to create drones for delivery, agriculture, and film productions.
Ten years later, the debate has changed radically. Drones have become a clear weapon of war. In some cases, the most important weapon: in recent months, More than 70% of the casualties in the war in Ukraine were caused by drones.Most of these robots were not created for military use, but are civilian drones converted to be lethal in combat. They represent a new form of asymmetric attack: drones costing just a few thousand euros can take out tanks costing millions. Right now, these aerial robots are essential in wars as diverse as the one between Gaza, Yemen, Myanmar, Sudan or Azerbaijan.
Drones appear to be the future of warfare. And China clearly holds the lead in this sector: it produces between 70% and 90% of civilian drones, and 79% of drone patents originate in China. In the event of war, China could easily restructure its production for military purposes. China also produces more than 60% and refines more than 90% of the rare earths needed for the manufacture of this technology. Beijing is the largest exporter of military drones, selling to regional powers such as the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Serbia. China is innovating strongly with new designs, from mosquito-sized spy drones to mother drones that carry hundreds of aerial robots inside.
Drones coordinated with artificial intelligence
In the defense industry, the big push right now is to connect drones with artificial intelligence. The idea is to have a swarm of hundreds or thousands of drones coordinated with each other using AI to attack a target or defend a position. The same idea is also being considered with banks of hundreds of underwater drones linked with AI, a weapon that would have a particular impact in critical locations like the Taiwan Strait. To incorporate AI cheaply, flexible open-source models like Alibaba's Qwen can provide a competitive advantage.
Despite this leadership, China has a key disadvantage compared to the United States: its military has lacked combat experience for decades. In contrast, Washington has deployed aerial robots in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now testing its technology in real time in Ukraine. In qualitative terms, several American war drones are superior to Chinese ones. But, as they say in the military, quantitative advantage—dominance in terms of scale—has a quality in itself. This is the card China plays.