A communist and an ultra-right-winger will compete for the presidency of Chile

Buenos AiresProgressive Jeannette Jara and far-right candidate José Antonio Kast will face each other in a runoff election for the presidency of Chile on December 14. This is the result of Sunday's elections, in which the communist candidate won with 26.8% of the vote, lower than predicted by the polls. Kast obtained 23.9%, a result that positions him as the favorite to unite the conservative vote. The surprise of the day was Franco Parisi, a candidate outsiderThe candidate campaigning against traditional parties and the establishment, promising "bullet or prison" for criminals, garnered nearly 20% of the vote. The biggest loser was the traditional right wing, led by Evelyn Matthei, which failed to surpass 12.4%. Election day was peaceful and saw very high voter turnout (86.5%, a figure attributed to the reinstatement of mandatory voting). The right turn is confirmed.

"I want to send a fraternal embrace to all those who voted for me and also to those who didn't," said Jeannette Jara in her acceptance speech. "Democracy in our country must be cared for and valued; it cost us too much to recover it for it to be put at risk today," she said, alluding to the relativization of Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship by Kast and other right-wing representatives. "Almost half of Chileans voted neither for me nor for Kast, and starting tomorrow we will go out to talk to them and listen to them attentively," Jara emphasized. The candidate, a member of the Communist Party and the only option that united the left and center-left vote, has served as Minister of Labor. with President Gabriel Boric, and proposes a progressive left-wing program, with a social rather than punitive approach to security and crime, which is currently the main concern of Chileans in the face of the rise of organized crime in the country.

For his part, José Antonio Kast called for right-wing unity to defeat Jara in the second round: "In life there are differences, even within the same sector, but these differences are nothing compared to what lies ahead, and what we must avoid is the continuation of a very bad government," he said, adding that Boric's was "like Chile." As soon as the results were announced, Evelyn Matthei and Johannes Kaiser went to Kast's headquarters, explicitly stating their support for him in the runoff. Regarding security, all three promoted hardline proposals during the campaign, with Kast even proposing border closures and criminalizing irregular migration, thus linking the rise in crime to immigration.

Kast, favorite

According to Alejandro Olivares, a political scientist at the University of Chile, Kast faces the second round "with an advantageous position thanks to the transfer of support he has already received, given the general political climate, to a government with low approval ratings and a Congress with strong support for right-wing ideas," he tells ARA. The analyst doubts that Jara can reverse the trend: "It would require a drastic shift in his tone, his proposals, and his alliances to win over Franco Parisi's vote," he asserts. Parisi is the candidate that no poll predicted: one outsider that defines itself as centrist, that makes liberal proposals in economics and that supports the hardline policy against crime, but that in turn is perceived as the "anti-politics" alternative and "anti-establishment"And he represents the 'disregarded middle class,' as he himself has said. If Jara fails to win over this voter, the expert says, 'the most likely scenario is that Kast will win in the second round.'"

Aside from the presidential candidates, this first round of elections has defined the composition of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, where the right wing is also making significant gains. While not achieving an absolute majority in either chamber, they are gaining seats, while the left wing is losing ground. Again, the role of Parisi's party (People's Party, PDG) will be crucial, as it could hold the key in some negotiations. "We must be clear that the right wing that is emerging is not the traditional right wing," Claudia Heiss, a political scientist at the University of Chile, told ARA. This "right wing that challenges the elites" also includes Kast's party, which in 2019 split from the Independent Democratic Union (UDI) and founded the PDG, which has just begun its grassroots work. Heiss sees a trend toward an "anti-establishment right wing" and concludes that "more than support for a right-wing program and ideas, what we have is an electorate that is demonstrating against the parties and the elites, and in favor of hardline policies and anti-immigration stances."