Can Asia wrest global hegemony from the West?

BeijingThe creation of a new international order based on multilateralism and pivoting toward Asia has shaken the world stage. However, it remains to be seen whether Asia has the capacity to replace the military, economic, and political power that the West has so far enjoyed. Asia's emergence is driven by China. Its president, Xi Jinping, proposes himself as the leader of the so-called Global South—that is, of developing countries—and advocates for a new one. reset of the international order that emerged after World War II.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit was the vehicle used by Xi this week to call for a global governance plan, although without providing too many specific details. The SCO is a clear example of how Asia's influence is growing. It was founded in 2001 as a Eurasian association formed by six countries—China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—to discuss issues of security and terrorism prevention. Over the years, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus have joined. In addition to the member countries, its forums also include countries such as Turkey and Burma, and other candidates for membership, although not particularly Asian, such as Serbia. In reality, they are states that seek the Chinese umbrella for their economic development.

Overwhelming numbers

The SCO figures are daunting and confirm that its member countries can be an alternative to the West. The SCO contributes more than 23% of global GDP, spans some 36 million square kilometers, has 40% of the global population, and accounts for 15% of international trade. Until the invasion of Ukraine, Russia and China led the SCO in both economic and military power. However, international sanctions against Russia have cornered Moscow and made it economically dependent on China.

Likewise, Donald Trump's disruptive policies have fueled the formation of an Asian axis. For example, it has been a catalyst for India to rebuild ties with China. The United States has imposed 50% tariffs on India, forcing it to seek other markets. This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping have displayed good rapport and a willingness to overcome past differences. The border clash in the Himalayas in 2020 froze relations between the two Asian giants. India even banned Chinese companies like TikTok from its territory. Furthermore, it has become a competitor to China, attracting new investments to its territory, such as factories to assemble the iPhone or develop semiconductors. India is the world's fifth-largest economy by GDP and, together with China, represents a large market of some 3 billion people.

But despite this rapprochement, Modi is balancing efforts to avoid severing ties with the West. India, along with the United States, Japan, and Australia, is a member of the Quad (short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), a group created precisely to combat China's emergence in the Indo-Pacific. That is, China and India can collaborate economically, but it's difficult for them to avoid their traditional rivalry. China's DNA is to be the "empire of the center," and it's hard to imagine Beijing would be willing to share leadership. In a hypothetical UN renewal, China has already rejected the extension of veto power to India or Japan.

Trump's tariff policy has undoubtedly shaken the map of Asia. Washington's pressure has not spared its traditional partners, such as Japan and South Korea. Consequently, the policy pursued by previous US administrations of strengthening its partners and celebrating India to encircle China has been shattered by the new occupant of the White House. Even Trump has shown little enthusiasm for continuing to support the military defense of South Korea and Japan.

The Power of Trade

Unlike the United States, China does not aspire to be the guardian or policeman of the world. The Asian giant interacts with the outside world through trade; what it is interested in is securing access to raw materials and controlling trade routes. However, the country continues to worry its neighbors because, despite its conciliatory rhetoric, it is unwilling to make concessions and maintains a voracious policy of expansion in the South China Sea.

A major obstacle to this new multipolar order would be the lack of homogeneity. Unlike the United States and Europe, these countries do not share the same cultural foundation or the same values. Possibly what unites them most is their desire to not interfere in domestic politics, focusing solely on trade, and their failure to recognize the universality of human rights, nor their willingness to respect them.