Birth rate plummets in the UK, and solutions are lacking

LondonAs this coming Friday marks the anniversary of Labour's return to power, and at a time when the actions of Prime Minister Keir Starmer are is more questioned than ever in the last twelve months In the past, with many open fronts and a public opinion that still doesn't know what he really stands for, some of his ministers seem to be taking steps to dispel the doubts. However, it is impossible to know if all this is part of a coordinated operation from Downing Street or if it responds to individual initiatives from different departments, which, faced with a clear lack of guidelines, are waging war on their own.

This is the case of the Minister of Education, Bridget Phillipson, who published an article in the daily newspaper on Monday. The Daily Telegraph, very conservative and extremely critical of the current government, in which she announces a series of measures so that "more young people can have children, if they so wish." These comments highlight the country's alarmingly low birth rate, perceived as an increasingly serious structural problem for the island society and, in general, for all Western societies. The minister's approach contrasts with what Starmer said just a few months ago, when he stated that his vision as premier It wasn't about telling Britons "how to live their lives," including whether or not to have children.

All of this, however, seems very cosmetic and doesn't address the real challenges that put spokes in the wheels of parenthood: among the measures mentioned by Bridget Phillipson, Starmer's government aims to facilitate access "to the services and advice that [and parents] need from the very beginning with reading, children, or resources to encourage language development." However, the minister herself admits: "A generation of young people has been rethinking whether or not to take the step of having children; not only worried about the rising costs of mortgages and rents, nor just about the cost of fuel and food, but also discouraged by a child support system with few places and exorbitant costs."

The fertility rate in England and Wales has fallen to 1.44 per woman, and in Scotland to 1.33, both well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. In 1950 the number of births in the UK was 2.19 per woman.

A study published by The Lancet Last year, the figures indicate that if the current trend continues, the average national rate will have fallen to 1.38 by 2050, and to 1.3 by 2100. This poses enormous challenges in caring for and paying for the care that a very aging population will increasingly require. In fact, the problem is so widespread in Western societies that it is expected that by the middle of this century, three out of four countries will have seen their populations decline.

Accelerated indebtedness

The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that the national debt could increase twofold over the next fifty years and that deaths would consistently outnumber births in the United Kingdom over the next decade. All of this would leave the country reliant on migration to avoid not only the suggested population decline but also a possible economic collapse. In fact, the aforementioned study by The Lancet He asserts that countries like the United Kingdom will depend on an influx of immigration from poorer African countries, implying that "open immigration will be necessary." Reform Party, led by populist and xenophobic Nigel Farage, which leads in the polls, is totally opposed.

Another problem with investing more public money in pro-natalist policies and social aid that would help alleviate the problem is the current arms race into which the world in general has launched itself and the United Kingdom in particular. In London, the cost of full-time childcare five days a week can reach £14,000, according to the Child Poverty Action Group. And the average salary in the city is around £35,000.

Without action on fronts such as housing, wages, and the cost of living, the supposedly good intentions will be for nothing, and the well-being of British society, and Western societies in general, will depend on immigration from areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, one of the few where poverty continues to exist. baby boomIn fact, Niger is projected to have a fertility rate of 5.15 in 2050. The analysis of The Lancet suggests that more than half of the world's babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa in 2100, compared with about a quarter in 2021.