Who can stop Netanyahu?
The real problem with what has happened in recent times in the Near East and the Middle East is the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his permanent ultra-nationalist and militaristic forward march to stay in power and thus evade the judicial cases that plague him. After the genocide perpetrated in Gaza in response to Hamas's terrorist attack, Israel has pushed Trump's United States into war against the Ayatollahs' Iran and has taken advantage of the military escalation to unashamedly execute its expansionist ambitions in the region. The objective: to gain security space by destroying its historical enemies.
Thus, in parallel to the attack on Tehran, Netanyahu has given his soldiers free rein in support of Jewish settlers to occupy new lands in the West Bank. And, at the same time, taking advantage of the international media focus on the Washington-Tehran clash, he has launched a very harsh offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah, with hundreds of civilian casualties –1,888 dead and more than 6,000 injured since March 2– and with a terrified population that has had to flee en masse to the north of the country. Netanyahu has long been crossing all red lines of international law with actions that the UN has considered war crimes. Therefore, on his trips outside Israeli territory, he has only set foot in friendly territories, such as Trump's Washington or Orbán's Budapest. In other latitudes, he risks being arrested and tried.
Right now, in fact, the biggest obstacle to the weak ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran is the Israeli war in Lebanon, that is, the private agenda of a Netanyahu over whom, in practice, Trump seems to have limited influence. Is the Israeli prime minister really willing to stop the offensive on Beirut? Is Netanyahu sincere when he agrees to initiate diplomatic talks with Lebanon in Washington while his Defense Minister, Israel Katz, assures that "the war will not stop"? We must not forget, as the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has taken care to remind us, that this Sunday the corruption trial against Netanyahu resumes and that a regional ceasefire, including Lebanon, "would accelerate his imprisonment".
International pressure –Asia, Europe, and the Gulf monarchies– to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, key to the global transport of oil and gas, has been crucial for the United States to accept a ceasefire and sit down to negotiate, starting Saturday, with Iran. A retreat difficult to conceal. It remains to be seen whether US pressure is strong and effective enough for Netanyahu to cease his offensive in Lebanon. Otherwise, everything could explode again. Tehran will hardly sit at the peace dialogue table in Pakistan if the Israeli army does not truly stop the attacks. This Friday will therefore be a key day to see if Netanyahu is forced to give an opportunity to regional de-escalation in the Middle East and, therefore, to know if the diplomatic route allows progress towards a scenario of global détente. For the moment, there are few signs for optimism.