The harsh reality of the Catalan cause in Europe
Never before has the issue of Catalan's official status in Europe been raised to the point of forcing the majority of foreign ministries to pronounce one way or another. The final result may be disappointing and indicates the extent of a long and difficult struggle. But on the other hand, it also clarifies things and clearly outlines the starting point. At the meeting of the General Council for European Affairs, the official status of Catalan, Basque, and Galician was discussed, and eight states were in favor and eight were reluctant. Therefore, not having secured the necessary unanimous vote in favor, Spain withdrew the proposal until future meetings.
The main problem is that among the countries that are reluctant to make Catalan official in Europe are major states, such as Germany (which had made it clear that if forced to vote on Tuesday, it would oppose it), France, and also Italy. Other countries that have also spoken out against the Spanish proposal include Croatia, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Finland, and Austria. These countries should be added to the Baltic countries, the Netherlands, and Bulgaria, which said nothing on Tuesday but their reticence is well known.
On the other hand, the "yes" camp includes Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, and Cyprus. Among those who are neutral (meaning that if there are no votes against, they would facilitate the approval of the proposal) are Poland, Slovakia, Greece, and Luxembourg. This, therefore, is the starting point. You can see the glass as half full or half empty, but the truth is that there is a lot of diplomatic work to be done if you truly want to convince all the countries that are currently hesitant.
Precedents don't exactly inspire optimism. Irish, for example, took fifteen years to be recognized, even though there was political consensus on the island. In the Spanish case, this internal consensus doesn't exist, as demonstrated by the maneuvers of the PP and Vox to pressure the states governed by their political families with the intention of derailing the proposal. It's curious, from this perspective, that one of the supporters of Catalan's official status is Hungarian Viktor Orbán, a Vox ally.
In any case, this clash with reality should serve two purposes. The first is that we must not be discouraged and continue to push and educate, as experience shows that persistence is key in these battles. Second, we must put all our eggs in one basket during this term, as it's not clear that the next Spanish government will be receptive. That's why we must take advantage of Spain's main lever of pressure: the negotiations for the next European Commission budget, which will begin this summer. This will be the time to apply more effective diplomatic pressure and enter into the traditional exchange of favors between states. The objective is difficult, but the game is still to be played.
