Not even with a red carpet
Donald Trump's naive optimism regarding Vladimir Putin has been evident once again. The American president's exaggerated self-confidence is not enough to soften the imperial resolve of his Russian counterpart, a beast of power that has set itself the mission of restoring Russia to greatness. The Alaska summit, complete with a red carpet, beyond legitimizing the invader of Ukraine, apparently achieved little. Putin emerged satisfied and even joked about a meeting with Trump in Moscow. Trump, on the other hand, emerged walled in and summoned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House on Monday. We hope this time it won't be to boo him in public.
Peace in Ukraine is not a piece of cake, as Trump has let it be known on more than one occasion. The future of Europe and Russia is at stake, and that is no small feat. Zelensky is Europe, he represents Europe, hence he is receiving the explicit support of its top leaders: France's Emmanuel Macron and Germany's Friedrich Merz, the hardliners of the EU, as well as Britain's Keir Starmer. When Trump speaks with Zelensky this Monday, he will also be speaking with the Europe he seems to despise, as if it were a decadent club of old friends who don't need to pay much attention. This is how the American leader sees us.
The keys to a ceasefire, which Trump now says is not necessary, and to a future peace are Ukrainian sovereignty, its territorial borders, and its security. All three points are key for Europe as a whole. Especially the third. Without a Ukraine with full security guarantees and, therefore, linked to NATO in a militarily reinforced EU, there will be no guarantee that Russia will sooner or later put up a fight again. Putin's aggressiveness has been demonstrated. On this point, a priori, Trump does not seem willing to maintain a strong Atlanticist commitment, much less to include Kiev. He does not want a front against his will. friend Putin. He wants him more at his side than in the Chinese corner. And Putin is making the most of his privileged geostrategic position between the West and the East. On the other hand, Putin's authoritarian democracy and his role as a strong, omnipotent leader already seem good to Trump, who at this point admires and envies him. He, too, is increasingly giving himself a free hand.
Putin, then, will want to cash in on peace in Ukraine well. He's in no hurry and has many points to emerge stronger, both domestically—with territorial gains—and abroad, with a lucrative and symbolic crossroads position in the US-China dispute. He wants to be received with honors and goodwill by both Trump and Xi, and to take advantage of it. On the other hand, Ukraine and Europe, militarily linked to Trump, have fewer strong cards; time is against them, and despite their efforts, they lack sufficient unity of action.
This is the harsh reality. If, on the one hand, it's clear that Trump isn't leaving as quickly as he wanted and hasn't managed to make the Alaska gesture decisive, on the other hand, it's also clear that his eagerness to change the international playing field to his whim, with blows of tariffs and the very law by Europe and the law of the strongest, makes him little or nothing. He's weak. Trump is today an uncomfortable and unpredictable ally. To what extent will Kiev and the Paris-Berlin-London axis be able to push him hard for a just and lasting peace?