France is reeling

Another government falls in the heart of Europe. France is left without a government. Another prime minister in the pillory. François Bayrou lasted nine months, not much. His immediate predecessors were also brief: five prime ministers in five years. Barnier and Attal, both former prime ministers, lasted three and eight months respectively; both combined did not reach a year. The country hasn't found the formula, and each new political shock brings the danger of a future victory for Le Pen's far-right a little closer. France's crisis of political governance and economic weakness are paradigmatic of the directionlessness of a Europe that sees Trump scorn it and Putin besieging it in Ukraine. magnitude France is in a slump, and Europe is suffering.

Unable to pass an austere budget aimed at refloating the economy, the centrist Catholic Bayrou, an Occitan son of peasants, has predictably lost the vote of confidence he had submitted: 364 deputies voted against it and only 194 in favor. The largest and second-largest economy in the European Union—seventh in the world—has not achieved the minimum political stability to emerge from the disarray. Bayrou himself, a historian by training, accentuating the drama, made a desperate, but ineffective, appeal this Monday: "France is in mortal danger." No, it isn't. But right now it is suffering acute disarray, with no way out of the dark tunnel in which it has found itself. National anguish marks the political debate, whose partisan situation makes any effective parliamentary consensus very difficult.

Very weak gross domestic product (GDP) growth, rising debt, and a widening deficit are the indicators that mark French daily life, although unemployment is at levels almost as low as those of 2008. In any case, as it stands, France lacks the capacity to sustain its historically generous economy. But at the same time, it is far from achieving social consensus or the minimum political force for a policy to resize it, an adjustment that the Bayrou government had estimated at 40 billion euros. "France doesn't produce enough and doesn't work enough," Bayrou had said. It can't afford the state it has. The impasse is difficult to resolve. Furthermore, the country's producers see how the tariffs of their supposed US friend are punishing their exports and how the EU's agreement with Mercosur is revolting among French farmers, a rural community that has long felt forgotten and undervalued. Added to this situation is the defense effort imposed by the war in Ukraine, with the US retreating from NATO's spending. The puzzle is extremely difficult.

The crisis, then, is profound, political and economic, perfectly interconnected. Bayrou will appear at the Élysée Palace this Tuesday to resign before President Emmanuel Macron, who also emerges weakened by this latest failure. The far right and the radical left are urging him to call elections. Macron will likely resist. But France is reeling.