What happened before the power outage? The government shares the blame between Red Eléctrica and the companies in the sector.

MadridThe Spanish government has solved the mystery of the origin of the massive power outage that hit the Iberian Peninsula on April 28. Forty-nine days after the incident, the technical committee led by the Ministry for Ecological Transition has completed the report outlining the causes that left Spain and Portugal in the dark for hours.

Broadly speaking, the conclusions are that no single factor can be attributed; that there was no cyberattack; that both the system operator, Red Eléctrica, and the private companies in the sector are partly to blame; and that Unlike what Pedro Sánchez stated one day after the blackout, it will be the courts or the National Commission of Markets and Competition (CNMC) that will be responsible for determining responsibilities, but not the Spanish government, as explained by the Minister for Ecological Transition, Sara Aagesen, in a press conference this Tuesday, following the Cabinet meeting. As of 10:27 p.m., the full report was still not available.

"The report has attempted to identify what happened, but also what measures need to be taken to ensure such an incident does not happen again," said Aagesen, who was responsible for outlining the conclusions of the investigation.

What went wrong?

It all stems from a power surge problem in the network that could not be avoided and ended up bringing down the entire electrical system: this is how the so-called zero electric or blackout. However, the explanation behind it is "multifactorial," in the minister's words. That is, there are several factors that explain the blackout, not just one. The report identifies three important ones:

Poor voltage control

The first cause is that there was insufficient capacity to control the dynamic voltage of the electrical system. According to the report, the electrical system operator (Red Eléctrica) had not scheduled sufficient conventional generation for that day. Likewise, the plants or generators that were scheduled to handle a possible disturbance (control voltage) were not able to absorb all the reactive power and provide the expected stability. Aagesen noted that "a combination of both." In any case, the minister wanted to make it clear that "in Spain there is sufficient conventional electricity generation capacity to respond to such a situation."

Previous oscillations

The second major cause is the three oscillations prior to the massive blackout, which affected the system. Although Red Eléctrica attempted to mitigate them through established protocols, the measures implemented, which were supposed to act as a remedy, had the side effect of increasing voltage in the electrical system. However, without these measures, the blackout would have occurred anyway. It's like someone being prescribed anticoagulant medication because they need it, at the risk of causing more bleeding than usual if they get hurt.

Now, of the three oscillations identified, there was one atypical one and two known ones (oscillations occur regularly). As for the atypical oscillation, it is linked to a photovoltaic plant located in southwestern Spain.

Generation disconnections

Finally, when the system was already under severe strain, some generators (installations) began to disconnect. Normally, these disconnections are carried out to ensure the safety of the facility, although some were apparently "inappropriate," which contributed even more to straining the system.

All of this resulted in a "point of no return" that could only have been avoided if the voltage had been much more tightly controlled. The problem with the firewalls was that they were trying to prevent the symptom of the problem, not its source.

Why is Red Eléctrica being targeted?

Red Eléctrica comes into play in terms of the generation forecast to be available to cover the electricity demand expected for the following day. This includes conventional technologies, for example thermal power plants, which, despite not providing electricity, must be available in case they need to be activated, especially to control voltage, as explained above. By law, these plants that are required to be in this situation are compensated.

As explained by the minister, on April 27, the day before the blackout, and hours after scheduling generation for the 28th, one of the ten thermal power plants that Red Eléctrica requests to be in this situation of standby reported that it could not be operational. In response, Red Eléctrica adjusted its generation forecast, but decided not to replace this thermal plant during the central hours of the 28th. Therefore, it left the planning at nine plants.

And what about the companies?

The role of the companies is under scrutiny for two reasons: first, according to Red Eléctrica, the nine power plants that were active to control the voltage did not do so as required by regulations. There is also the question of why a photovoltaic power plant located in the south of the Iberian Peninsula is behind the anomalous oscillation. Finally, the focus is on the generators that were disconnected not for safety reasons, but in an "apparently improper" manner.

What has been ruled out?

The committee of experts has found no evidence of a cyberattack at Red Eléctrica or elsewhere. In any case, they have identified "vulnerabilities, shortcomings, or poorly configured security measures" that expose the electricity grid to a risk like this.

What's still unknown?

The report assumes that contradictory and incomplete data was found, and that information was expected to be available but ultimately never arrived. "These are omissions that remain limited," the minister explained. Furthermore, the document contains information that has been "anonymized" for confidentiality reasons and at the request of those involved. For example, it does not include company names or the specific locations of the power plants, nor do it include the names of those who made specific decisions before or during the blackout. On this point, Aagesen ruled out the possibility that the government is considering asking for the resignation of Red Eléctrica president Beatriz Corredor.

The minister has announced that she will appear before the official secrets committee in the Congress of Deputies, which is being held behind closed doors.

What role will the courts and the CNMC play?

Although Pedro Sánchez stated that the government would "determine responsibilities," Aagesen made it clear that the committee's analysis is not a "judicial examination." "It aims to identify the causes and call for reflection from all stakeholders in the electricity system," the minister said. In this way, the Spanish government is leaving the task of identifying responsibilities in the hands of the courts and the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC). This hot potato is important in the face of the possible sanctions, but above all the multi-million-dollar compensation, that are expected. In fact, Endesa CEO José Bogas has anticipated this scenario: "I fear that, no matter what they say, we will all end up in court," he stated this Tuesday.

Measures to strengthen the electrical system

As a result of the power outage, the Spanish government will approve a package of measures to strengthen the electricity system. In fact, it is expected to be approved by the Council of Ministers next week. Among the measures are the update of the electricity system's voltage control service (which will also allow renewable energy sources to control it, not just conventional technologies), increased compliance with obligations by the stakeholders involved (companies and system operators), and the promotion of interconnections with the European system.

Waiting for Europe

However, the report being prepared by the independent European group of experts has yet to be released. In this case, they have been given six months to reach preliminary conclusions and a full year from the power outage to obtain a final report. In recent weeks, European experts have complained about the difficulty in accessing information from private companies and have even asked the Spanish government for help in obtaining it.