The OECD raises its growth forecast for Spain for 2025 and 2026.

ParisIn a global economic context marked by uncertainty and modest growth in many of the economies of wealthy countries, the Spanish economy appears to be emerging almost unscathed. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) slightly revised its forecasts for the Spanish economy upwards this Tuesday and estimates that it will grow 2.6% this year, two-tenths of a percentage point more than it anticipated in June, and 2% in 2026, one-tenth more than expected.

It is significant that the OECD is revising its forecasts for Spain upwards just months after having revised them downwards. At the time, it argued that the trade war could have an immediate impact on Spanish GDP. Now the organization has reversed itself and believes that the new tariffs will not affect it as much as it anticipated, at least for now.

The figures confirm the trend of recent months: Spain is, for now, dodging the consequences of Donald Trump's trade war and leading growth in the eurozone. The other major economies in the blog will see their GDP increase this year by only between 0.3% (Germany) and 0.6% (France and Italy). In fact, Spanish economic growth is expected to more than double the rate expected for the eurozone as a whole this year (1.2%) and double next year (1%).

Strength of domestic demand

"Proven consumption remains very strong" in Spain, Álvaro Pereira, chief economist at the OECD, stressed in a statement to Efe. Pereira insists that the strength of domestic demand, combined with the positive figures of the tourism sector over the years and the influx of foreign labor, is "the main driver of growth" for the Spanish economy and its differentiating factor in the eurozone.

However, the OECD figures are less optimistic than those of the Spanish government (2.7% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026) and confirm the slowdown in economic activity. In 2024, Spanish economic growth was 3.2%, quadrupling that of the eurozone as a whole.

The Paris-based organization also highlights that unemployment in Spain has decreased since the end of 2024, but warns of "signs of a slowdown" in work intensity. "The average number of hours worked per employee decreased year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025," states the OECD's economic forecast report published Tuesday. This trend is also seen in countries such as France, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

The global economy is resilient.

The new OECD report, which includes forecasts for all G-20 countries (the most developed economies and the most emerging countries), highlights that the global economy is, for now, withstanding the consequences of the US trade war, but warns that the situation will not last. According to the organization, the effects of the imposition of new tariffs by the United States will be clearly felt this year.

After growing 2.8% in 2024, US GDP will experience a very marked slowdown this year, especially due to Trump's trade war, which will limit growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Other economies are starting to see growth in 2026. In Germany and Brazil, for example, industrial production has fallen in recent weeks.