The OECD lowers its Spanish growth forecast by a tenth to 2.1% due to the war in the Middle East

Barcelona"The conflict in the Middle East will test the resilience of the global economy". Short and to the point. The new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revises its growth forecasts taking into account the impact of the war that began in Iran.

According to the entity's data, the eurozone will be one of the main ones affected: while in December a growth of 1.2% was forecast, the new projections now point to a more moderate one, of 0.8%, four tenths less. The Spanish economy, however, would resist the impact quite well, which would only increase by 2.1%, although the December report predicted it would be 2.2% (-0.1).

The outlook for Spain for the year 2027 is also reduced, decreasing from a growth of 1.8% to 1.7%. This data shows a decrease compared to 2025, when the State's economy grew by 2.8%.

On a global scale, the report maintains its forecast for 2026 of 2.9%, a figure that already represents a slowdown compared to last year, when it grew by 3.3%. The sharp drop in the forecast for the United Kingdom also stands out, which if in December it pointed to a growth of 1.2%, the new report indicates that with the war in the Middle East its economy would only increase by 0.7%.

The US improves

For its part, the United States is not worsening its forecasts. In fact, quite the opposite: the country's large investment in technology is reinforced in the OECD's update and points to a growth of 2%, while in December it was predicted that by the end of the year it would be at 1.7%.

As the report indicates, before the conflict broke out, global growth remained "resilient", driven by strong investment and production related to artificial intelligence. The OECD also indicates that financial and fiscal conditions were pushing favorably.

However, currently, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and energy infrastructure damaged, there has been an increase in energy prices due to supply problems. Other basic products such as fertilizers have also been affected. "If it persists, the conflict will weigh on global growth and boost inflation," warns the economic entity.

For this reason, the OECD calls for central banks to "remain vigilant" and assures that "monetary policy adjustments may be necessary if growing price pressures arise or if growth prospects weaken."

In this regard, looking ahead, it also urges states to implement policies that improve energy efficiency and reduce "dependence on imported fossil fuels to help reduce countries' exposure to future geopolitical tensions".