The military escalation between the US and Iran once again sends oil prices soaring and shakes stock markets
Brent climbs 5% after Trump's attack on an Iranian ship breaks the truce, while the Ibex-35 falls 1.21%
BarcelonaBlack Monday on financial markets. The new escalation of tension between the United States and Iran has once again shaken the price of oil and European stock markets. The Spanish stock market and the rest of the European exchanges closed the session with significant losses, dragged down by the warlike situation. For its part, crude oil is once again rising more than 5%, to $95 a barrel of Brent.
The spark that ignited the markets was the confirmation, by President Donald Trump, that the US Navy has attacked and captured an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that was attempting to break the naval blockade.
Crude oil is rising again
The most violent reaction was seen in the commodity market. Brent crude, the benchmark for Europe, soared 5.05% to $95.75 a barrel. Despite this, it did not reach the $100 a barrel mark, as it had done at other times of maximum tension during this war in Iran. For its part, Texas (WTI), the benchmark for the United States, rose even more sharply: 5.74%, trading near $89 a barrel.
Regarding the price of natural gas on the TTF market in the Netherlands (the main one in Europe), it rose by more than 2%, to reach 39.68 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).
Despite the price escalation, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, showed his most optimistic side this Monday, stating that the cost of gasoline will fall "as soon as the war ends." With these statements, Trump has disavowed his own Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, who had predicted that prices would not fall until 2027.
The president, pressured by declining popularity polls, is trying to calm the public in the face of growing inflation, even though the conflict in Iran has already lasted two months – it already exceeds the White House's initial forecasts – and there are no signs of an imminent diplomatic resolution.
Widespread red in Europe
The Ibex-35, the Spanish selective index, has suffered a fall of 1.21%, settling at 18,260.9 points. Although the index maintains an accumulated advance of more than 5% so far this year, this Monday's session has been marked by the rise in crude oil prices and pessimism regarding a possible end to the war in Iran.
The financial sector has been the most penalized due to uncertainty: BBVA has led the losses with a fall of 3.42%, followed by Banco Santander (-2.59%). The textile giant Inditex has also retreated by 1.27%. On the other hand, only energy and electricity companies, which directly benefit from crude oil prices, have closed in the green: Repsol rose by 2.18%, while Iberdrola and Telefonica registered slight advances.
The rest of the European stock markets also experienced a day in the red: the German Dax ceded 1.04%; the British FTSE 100, 0.55%; the Milan stock market, 1.36, and the French CAC, 1.12%.
Shelter in debt and a brake on gold
The wave of uncertainty has not only affected crude oil, but has also sent public debt yields soaring. The Spanish ten-year bond already exceeds 3.40%, while the German bund –the benchmark in Europe– is approaching 3%. As for the United States, the ten-year US bond is climbing to 4.25%.
Finally, precious metals have halted their recent rises today; gold retains its cushion of $4,800 per ounce, while silver has retreated to $80 per ounce.