The International Energy Agency downgrades global renewable energy growth due to Trump's policies.

BarcelonaDonald Trump's anti-green energy policies in the United States are beginning to have a global impact. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downward its forecasts for renewable electricity growth. This agency has cut its estimates for 2030 by 5% compared to the previous forecast. This modification is essentially related to the restrictive policies of the US administration, according to this organization's annual report. In its analysis, the agency highlights that projections for the world's leading power have been cut by almost 50% compared to those made last year.

In this regard, notable changes in legislation, especially the one passed in July 2025, have led to the early elimination of tax incentives and import restrictions, as well as the suspension and reduction of permits for wind and solar projects on federal lands. Between 2025 and 2030, nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity is expected to be added in the United States, although a peak in new installations is anticipated in 2027, followed by a decline in 2028 and a stabilization until the end of the decade.

Forecasts related to the other major global giant, China, are also being reduced. The approved switch in the Asian giant from fixed tariffs to auctions "is affecting project economics, leading to a reduction in our forecast for renewable energy growth in the Chinese market," says the IEA. However, despite the 5% forecast cut, China is expected to increase its capacity by nearly 2,660 GW over the next five years, remaining the world leader in renewables with more than half of the global total.

India, Europe, and emerging economies

According to the report, these adjustments are partly offset by the dynamism of other areas of the world, particularly India, Europe, and most emerging and developing economies, "where growth prospects have been revised upwards due to ambitious new policies, auction volumes, faster permitting, and a slower rollout." The IEA's analysis also highlights the importance of long-term green power purchase agreements (PPAs) among the elements driving global supply. Indeed, this variable and others together account for 30% of the expansion in global renewable capacity through 2030, doubling their share compared to last year's forecast, according to the IEA.

Globally, renewable energy growth is estimated to reach 4,600 GW by 2030, more than doubling current volumes. Among the highlights, India is emerging as the second largest market in absolute terms, projected to grow at 345 GW, tripling its capacity by 2022. Europe as a whole will contribute approximately 630 GW to the global figure, representing a 67% increase in capacity to G1.

The IEA report also highlights that approximately 80% of new renewable energy installations over the next five years will be solar photovoltaic plants. This growth should lead to lower panel costs and faster permitting times, the international organization says. At the same time, it warns that offshore wind energy faces a "more uncertain outlook, with growth expectations down 25% due to changes in key markets and supply chain bottlenecks."