The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) forecasts that tax revenue will close 2025 with a growth of 9.5%.

BarcelonaThe Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimates that the 2025 tax year will close with an increase in tax revenue. According to the latest report published by the agency headed by Cristina Herrero, tax revenues rose by 9.5% in the last year. This growth is explained by a combination of factors. AIReF's analysis details that this year's growth does not depend on a single isolated factor, but rather on a balance between real economic growth—that is, discounting the effect of prices—which accounts for 32% of the increase, and growth that does not take inflation into account, which represents 38%. In addition to these market factors, the Spanish government's decision to reinstate the limits on corporate tax and the full recovery of VAT rates, which had been reduced to mitigate the energy crisis, have been decisive, contributing 27% of the total growth.

Another pillar of this revenue increase lies in personal income tax (IRPF). According to the agency, which published the report this Wednesday, the increase in the average effective tax rate accounts for an additional 11% of the revenue. This rise is directly attributed to the dynamism of the labor market and, above all, to wage and pension increases, which have pushed taxpayers into higher tax brackets.

This trend began in 2023 and has consolidated during 2024 and 2025, making employment income the main source of public revenue, ahead of job creation, which dominated in the years immediately following the pandemic.

The slowdown of court rulings

However, the overall picture is not entirely positive. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) points out that "various factors" reduced potential revenue by 9%. The main reason is the significant expenditure the Ministry of Finance has had to make to comply with the Supreme Court ruling in favor of mutual insurance companies, which obliges the State to refund amounts overcharged in previous years. Regarding companies, the report explains that in 2024 and 2025 there has been a certain disconnect between accounting profits and what they actually end up paying in installment payments, which complicates short-term forecasts. Five years of sustained growth

With these figures, the State has experienced a period of strong revenue growth. After peaks of 14% in 2021 and 2022 and a moderation of 6.4% in 2023, tax collection accelerated again in 2024 (8%) to reach the estimated 9.5% for 2025 – the current fiscal year – which has now been consolidated.