Ponent, the Penedès and the Girona-Olot axis drive Catalan economic growth in 2025

BarcelonaThe Ponent regions, together with the Penedès and the Girona-Olot axis, were the engine of economic growth in Catalonia last year, according to data from the 2026 Regional Economic Report published this Monday by BBVA. At the other extreme, the Ribera d'Ebre and Terra Alta were the only two regions where economic activity decreased in 2025.

Specifically, the two regions with the most growth in 2025 were Noguera and Solsonès, with increases in gross value added (GVA, an indicator of economic activity similar to gross domestic product) of 5.1% and 4.5% compared to the previous year, respectively. The Catalan average was 3%, according to the same report, below the 4% of 2024.

By regions, Ponent, with 3.7% annually, was where the strongest economic growth was recorded, followed by the Barcelona metropolitan area and the Girona regions, with 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The central regions, with 2.7%, followed closely, with Camp de Tarragona at 2.2%. The Pyrenees and Aran regions, with 2%, and the Terres de l'Ebre, with 1.3%, closed the ranking.

The Lleida regions have been favored by several factors. One is that "the primary sector, after some years with very sharp falls, has recovered," explained Josep Oliver, director of the report and professor emeritus of applied economics at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. It should be taken into account that agriculture and livestock farming represent more than 8% of the economic activity in the Lleida plain, while in Catalonia as a whole it does not even reach 1%.

Furthermore, the growth of the country's western regions is accompanied by sustained growth for a longer time in the Olot-Manresa-Girona triangle, which since the end of the pandemic has been one of the main engines of the country's growth. This fact contrasts with the years following the financial crisis, when it was the Catalan coast – which Oliver calls the "AP-7 axis" – that pulled the most weight thanks to industrial export power (with a strong weight of energy and chemicals) and the arrival of tourism.

Precisely this export strength has been falling in recent years until 2025, when the external sector subtracted growth from the Catalan economy. "There are some very strong headwinds," pointed out Oliver, including geopolitical uncertainty due to various armed conflicts, the tariff war initiated by the United States, the increase in the price of energy on an international scale, a "strong euro" that makes exports outside the eurozone more expensive, and "the growing presence of China in our markets," which negatively impacts the industrial fabric, especially the automotive sector.

Conversely, domestic demand has been the main engine of growth thanks to demographic growth, based exclusively on the arrival of foreign workers. Between 2023 and 2025, Catalonia gained 362,000 inhabitants who came from outside the State, while recording more deaths than births.

This demographic increase allowed the labor market to close with nearly four million Social Security affiliates in Catalonia and stronger domestic consumption thanks to this higher employment, together with the interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which have improved access to credit. As a negative point, however, Oliver highlighted the "too low" level of housing construction taking into account population growth.

Change of production model

One of the elements that Oliver highlighted at the presentation ceremony of the Yearbook has been "a growing specialization towards the export of non-tourism services" and a higher growth in non-personal services, that is to say, oriented towards serving companies. These two elements lead the emeritus professor to conclude that "there is a certain change in the productive model." "Hopefully it will consolidate," he added.

Likewise, Oliver has noted that "tourism is exhausting the post-covid recovery." In fact, the specialization in tourism and in certain low-value-added industries has been one of the points most criticized by experts regarding the Catalan economy in recent years. The most paradigmatic case was the Fènix Report, a document prepared by several prestigious economists that criticized the low productivity and, by extension, the low wages that exist in Catalonia, a fact that in his opinion endangers the future of the welfare state.

However, other entities, such as the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, agree with Oliver that in recent years there has been an incipient growth of services related to telecommunications, research, or finance that provide higher added value and require more qualified and, therefore, better-paid jobs.