One year of Trump's trade war: fewer exports and few guarantees requested

MadridOn April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced from the White House Rose Garden a list of "reciprocal" tariffs for various countries around the world, opening the door wide to an unprecedented trade war. Chaos and uncertainty gripped trade relations due to tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, and in the case of the European Union, they stood at 20%. For twelve months, the trade clash has gone through different phases, the last one marked by the US Supreme Court's decision to declare a large part of that decision illegal. However, it has left its mark on trade relations, at least with Spain, especially regarding exports.

"The impact is evident," lamented this Wednesday the brand-new First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo. "The trend [of exports to the United States] was practically stable or growing, but it broke following the introduction of these tariffs in 2025," added the minister during a appearance before the Congress's economy commission, his first since becoming First Vice President. Cuerpo appeared before the deputies to explain, precisely, the current state of the trade link between Spain and the United States after that clash. That is, to take stock of the past year. But also to account for the resources mobilized by the government of Pedro Sánchez to help the most affected companies and sectors, which amounted to more than 14 billion euros. For now, Cuerpo has said that 5.5 billion have been mobilized.

Exports, imports, and investment

First, it should be taken into account that the commercial relationship between the United States and the State, as well as with Catalonia, has two pillars: that of exports and imports of goods and services, and that of investments, with much greater relevance. Cuerpo detailed both to them.

Goods exports have fallen across the board. Of course, the impact has been heterogeneous, with some sectors more affected than others. For example, exports of medicines, electrical material, and mechanical machines or appliances, which are the products most exported in terms of volume, contributed positively to overall sales to the United States. In contrast, oil and olive oil in particular suffered greatly. It is also true that Cuerpo wanted to differentiate exports of this product based on whether volume or price is considered, taking into account that in 2024 the sale of oil to the United States was historic in nominal terms (prices) because the cost was sky-high due to low production resulting from the drought. When the price normalizes, exports in nominal terms plummet. In contrast, in terms of volume, sales remained constant.

Imports remained on the rise, leaving a trade deficit that is explained, above all, by the energy resources that the State buys from the United States: liquefied natural gas, mainly, but also oil.

As for investment, the United States is still the main destination for Spanish investment and, at the same time, it is the main foreign investor in the State. 

5,500 million for companies

With the approval of new tariffs by the Trump administration, the Spanish government approved a shock plan to help activities most exposed to the North American market. This Wednesday, Cuerpo detailed that the central executive has already mobilized 5,550 million euros to face the shock and that they have gone to companies. The figure, however, is far from the more than 14,000 million that Pedro Sánchez promised to mobilize – of this money, it must be taken into account that 7,400 million euros were from new financing, while 6,700 million were part of existing allocations.

Among the aid, for example, were the agreements established between the ICO and the banks to launch guarantee lines so that the most affected companies had quick access to financing. For this, 5,000 million euros were foreseen, but for now, the affected companies have only requested guarantees worth 173 million.

Finally, Cuerpo appealed to companies to diversify their businesses and forge their way into other markets. "We are all aware that in the current context it is important to diversify [...], reduce dependence and strengthen commercial relations with reliable partners and within a framework of predictable rules".