Has tourism peaked? Price and visitor growth slows.

BarcelonaThe Catalan tourism sector is at its historic peak, but it is also showing the first signs of slowing down after the post-pandemic euphoria. During the busiest months of the season, hotel and apartment prices have continued to rise, but at the slowest pace in the last five years. The hotel sector has even set an unprecedented precedent since 2020: prices have risen less than general inflation.

Behind this trend of slowdown and record figures at the same time, there is a statistical phenomenon calledbase effect: As the tourist season (which lasts from March to October) in 2023 and 2024 was very good, with large increases compared to the previous year, this year 2025 saw more modest growth, both in prices and in the number of international tourists visiting Catalonia.

The latest example of this behavior was seen in July: the number of international tourists visiting Catalonia fell compared to the same month in 2024, leading to speculation of a slowdown or even a decline in the sector. However, in the cumulative number since January, this year's visitors were higher than last year's.

Can it continue to grow?

Precisely because of this base effect, the president of the Spanish Tourism Board, Joan Molas, believes that caution must be exercised when comparing the data for 2025 with those for 2024. He points out that the most important thing is that, although last year was the best in history, this year the sector continues to grow. "It's true that the second half of August saw a slight drop in hotel and campsite occupancy in Catalonia, but we must consider that it was a very hot August and also very rainy in some regions, such as Alt Empordà, La Garrotxa, and La Cerdanya," Molas added, speaking to ARA.

Looking ahead to September, he assures that it is being very good, both in Barcelona and on the coast, and predicts that both Spain and Catalonia will surpass their records for foreign visitors, which were 93.7 and 19.9 million people last year, respectively. "In addition, Barcelona has 22 conferences scheduled, which could make it one of the best Septembers ever. October will be a good month, November is expected to be a bit down, and December depends on the Immaculate Conception and New Year's long weekends," Molas predicts.

Regarding some customers' complaints about rising prices, Molas provides some context. "Do you think the Empordà region, to name a region, is comparable to Provence or Tuscany? I think so. If you compare prices in Provence and Tuscany, we're still far from reaching the prices of hotels and restaurants in the tourist areas there," he explains. "We have to keep in mind that prices are rising after a successful 2023 and an extraordinary 2024. Has this helped restaurateurs raise prices a bit too much?"

The sector remains strong.

Average revenue per available room, an indicator known as RevPAR, shows the same slight downward trend: while it grew by around 10% between April and July in 2023 and 2024, this year it only grew by 2.3%. However, the explanation is once again statistical.

"The sector's profitability per room in 2022 and 2023 registered very high increases. This isn't a slowdown because activity is worsening, but rather because we're coming from very high prices and a slowdown is occurring," the secretary general explains to ARA.

Hermosilla sees three causes behind this slowdown: the European economic situation, which is harming important source markets for Catalonia, such as France and Germany; the increase in Asian competition, with equally cheap or cheaper prices; and the adjustment of increases driven by the post-pandemic euphoria.

For example, in the months of April, May, June and July, the price of hotel rooms increased by 1.89% in Catalonia, below the general increase in the consumer price index (CPI), which stood at 2.05%, while in the same months of 2023 and 2024, 2024 and 2024, well above the average inflation of these four months, 2.75% two years ago and 3.45% last year.