Gas prices soar due to new geopolitical tensions

BarcelonaThe price of natural gas in the Netherlands, the largest market in Europe, has surged by more than 25% this January, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly the clash between US President Donald Trump and European Union leaders over the American magnate's intentions to annex the EU. The price of gas on the TTF (the Dutch market) closed at €28.161 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2025, compared to over €36 on Tuesday. In the Spanish market, Mibgas, the price closed at €30.19 per MWh in 2025, but was above €37 on Tuesday.

This increase in natural gas prices coincides with new geopolitical tensions, at a time when the US under Donald Trump has become the main supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, replacing Russia, which is under an embargo on this hydrocarbon due to the war in Ukraine.

According to data published this week by Enagás (the company that operates the gas system), Spain has increased its gas purchases from the United States by almost 100% for 2025 compared to the previous year. This growing dependence on US LNG is also occurring at the European level, as the analysis shows. Europe's selective blindness on gas: US LNG and the limits of supply diversificationPrepared by energy policy experts from the Clingendael Institute (Netherlands), the Ecolog Institute (Germany), and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), this report highlights that Europe is experiencing a surge in imports of US LNG. In fact, by 2025, US LNG accounted for more than half of all LNG imports by the European Union. The experts who produced this report consider this European dependence on US gas to be a risk. "Europe needs a clear definition of diversification and a strategy that reflects current geopolitical realities," says Raffaele Piria, one of the report's authors. "Europe's dependence on LNG increases its exposure to fluctuations in global prices, which has a strong impact on wholesale gas and electricity prices," notes another author, Hannah Lentschig of the Clingendael Institute.

The EU is phasing out all imports of Russian gas by 2027 and aims to diversify its supply. However, the report warns that diversification cannot mean replacing one dominant supplier with another, and urges the EU to improve energy security by accelerating the development of renewable energy and electrification, with the goal of phasing out gas and oil imports. By 2025, US LNG imports into the European Economic Area increased by 61%, and by as much as 485% compared to 2019, with US LNG now accounting for more than 59% of EU LNG imports. This trend exposes Europe to geopolitical pressure and price volatility, the report's authors argue. In December, the European Parliament adopted a new law to phase out gas and oil imports from Russia. The report's authors view the objectives of this regulation positively, but warn that the law, which now requires formal approval from the Council, redefines "diversification" as merely the elimination of Russian imports. "Europe needs a clear definition of diversification and a strategy that reflects current geopolitical realities," notes Raffaele Piria. "Historically, US government interference in gas markets to exert pressure on Europe was considered unthinkable. In the current geopolitical context, this assumption is questionable," Piria adds.

Diversification

Although the report's authors call for a proper definition of diversification, they also urge EU policymakers to pursue a broader energy security strategy. "True energy security requires accelerating domestic renewables and electrification to phase out gas and oil imports, not just switching fossil fuel suppliers," argues Louise van Schaik, head of the EU and Global Affairs Unit at Clingendael. "In the short and medium term, we will still need gas," she adds, "and therefore EU policymakers must pursue genuine diversification across suppliers and routes, and national diversification plans should clearly reflect this."