Catalonia will grow this year by 2.6%, but with the threat of inflation and less investment

BarcelonaThe Catalan economy will grow by 2.6% this year, three tenths more than what was forecast in the spring, but with risks due to the threat of rising inflation and the slowdown in investment. These are the forecasts from the Generalitat's Ministry of Economy, published this Monday for 2026 and 2027. In general, "a notable dynamism will be maintained despite the energy crisis," the document highlights. Looking ahead to 2027, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) will be more moderate and will stand at 2.1%. And the unemployment rate will remain at the lowest levels since 2008.

Despite the positive evolution of activity, the Generalitat's estimate detects "signs of slowing down in some private consumption indicators, in parallel with the rise in inflation." And exports of goods and services (including tourism) maintain a slightly positive trend despite the unfavorable international context.

According to the forecasts, domestic demand, and, more specifically, private consumption, will continue to drive growth this year thanks to job creation and demographic expansion. In any case, the rate of increase will be "softer than in previous years," the analysis adds. Investment, for its part, "is the element most affected by the context of international instability." As a result, its growth will slow down to 3.4% this year, compared to 6% last year, and the estimate is that it will fall to a rate of 1.8% in 2027.

In general, the Catalan economy has so far maintained diversified growth, with positive contributions from all major sectors, and has already accumulated more than five years with records higher than those of the Eurozone, according to the Ministry of Economy. The current evolution suggests that the impact of the energy crisis has been, for the moment, "limited" during the first semester. However, the document warns that risks have intensified due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has driven up inflation, which stood at 4.5% in Catalonia in September, and interest rates, which makes credit more expensive for individuals and companies.

All this translates into "more restrictive financing conditions", warns the ministry. The government's analysis also cites other risks that could cloud the economy's cruising speed, such as "the economic weakness of the eurozone, geopolitical tensions, commercial competition with China, or the financial instability associated with the rise of investments in artificial intelligence".

Unemployment rate at the 2008 level

According to this document, activity would continue to be based primarily on domestic demand, but household consumption would slow down to 2.9%, compared to 3.9% last year, and will slow its pace to 2.1% in 2027. Investment would maintain a weak increase next year (1.8%) due to more restrictive financing conditions and the end of the Next Generation European funds. Exports, for their part, will grow by 1.9%, compared to 4.2% in 2025; but they will recover to 2.2% in 2027.

Job creation will continue in the 2026-2027 biennium, "but at a more moderate pace, in line with the gradual deceleration of GDP". The increase in full-time equivalent employment will still be notable in 2026 (2.0%), while in 2027 it would moderate to 1.5%. The unemployment rate remains at its lowest levels since 2008, and would stabilize at levels similar to those of 2025 (around 8.4%), in a context of dynamism in the working-age population.