Can the State be left in the dark again?

MadridIf it happened once, why not twice? Of all the questions that continue to be asked almost a year after the massive power outage, this is among the most frequent: can the State be plunged into darkness again?

The Spanish government is clear: "There is nothing to suggest that an event like that could be repeated," they assure from the Ministry for Ecological Transition to el ARA. This newspaper has asked the same question to the system operator, Red Eléctrica; to the electrical employers' association Aelec, as well as to different experts. And although no one answers with a resounding yes or no, everyone agrees that since then, steps have been taken with measures that dispel any minimal possibility.

"The risk of a similar incident recurring has been significantly reduced," says Marta Castro, director of Regulation at Aelec. "With everything that is being done, I don't think it can happen again," points out Lluís Pinós, president of the Energy Commission of the Col·legi d'Enginyers de Catalunya. Sources from Red Eléctrica also express themselves along the same lines, although they recall that it does not depend solely on the system operator: "It goes far beyond Red Eléctrica. Hundreds of private agents (generators, distributors...) participate in the system, and we are all obliged to comply with current regulations," they point out.

What has been done?

From the ministry led by Sara Aagesen, they reason that a year ago the electrical system already had tools and mechanisms to avoid a massive electrical blackout: "They have been reinforced," they summarize. But precisely because of this, the professor at the Complutense University of Madrid and Fedea researcher in the energy area, Diego Rodríguez, does not hesitate to point out that the system was "weaker" than one might think: "The blackout was the proof and it is confirmed with the reinforcement".

Broadly speaking, the focus of this reinforcement has been on two of the causes of the incident: the rapid increase in voltage and the mechanisms so that, if this were to happen, it can be controlled and not suffer an "electrical zero".

Initially, supervision and control over all agents have been increased: from the system operator to companies. "All agents must be well coordinated, with mutual surveillance and supervision by the regulator [the National Commission of Markets and Competition]," they argue from the ministry.

Renewables (solar or wind energy) have also been enabled to play a role in the dynamic control of voltage, as is the case in many European countries. In this way, they join conventional technologies (combined cycles, nuclear, or hydroelectric) in terms of this control, thus reinforcing the security of the electrical system. Sources from Red Eléctrica explain that there are already 12.5 gigawatts (GW) providing this new voltage control service, of which 4.5 GW are "renewables, cogeneration, and waste."

This change basically means that there are more facilities capable of providing reactive power – it creates the magnetic fields necessary for the system to function – when the electrical grid needs stability. This is important considering that the penetration of green energies in recent years has opened the door to more voltage variations because their production depends on weather conditions and is, therefore, more unstable.

Furthermore, it has been observed that grid stability depends not only on cables, stations, or substations, but also on other components that, considering the new electrical mix, are "important." The Fedea researcher gives the example of compensators, synchronous condensers, and phase shifters. "They are equipment that improves the system's characteristics. But they are very expensive and were not very present. Now more must be installed," indicates Rodríguez.

But during these months, Red Eléctrica's "reinforcement mode" has also been activated, which broadly consists of keeping more than twenty combined cycles (gas power plants) running at idle. They do not generate electricity, but they are available to be activated at any time, especially in case demand soars and renewables cannot cover it, or if technical problems in the system are detected again. But this, while providing security to the system, also has an extra cost paid by consumers, as well as an increase in natural gas consumption. For this reason, Aelec believes that "the challenge is to consolidate this security with structural solutions that are efficient and compatible with the energy transition," points out Castro.

Finally, the system operator is also working on a new regulation regarding coordination with the system's regulator, the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC).

The objective of all this, as explained by the ministry, is to "anticipate" the future needs of the electrical system, which will continue to change considering that not only is there a desire to move towards an electrification of the economy, but there are also new industries (for example, data centers) that require a massive amount of electrical energy to function. This puts more strain on the system and its infrastructure. But also to anticipate the "unknown". From the ministry led by Aagesen, they embrace the recommendation of the European committee of experts to expand knowledge about the electrical system to the entire continent, especially regarding interconnections. "We must reduce the scope of what we do not know because it is impossible to combat what is ignored," they conclude from the ministry.