Bill Gates warns of the social outbreak of AI: "It will be the great equalizer or the worst source of injustice"

Barcelona"Artificial intelligence could be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of inequality." Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates believes the potential impact of AI – benefits and pitfalls, in equal measure – is greatly underestimated. In a long essay published on his website, Gates Notes, the tech mogul and president of his namesake foundation has detailed the promises and dangers of a technology that, in his view, could dismantle the entire contemporary social structure. "The transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent periods in human history. And, as of now, we are not adequately prepared to face it," he asserts.

Against more conservative stances, which limit both the benefits and potential dangers of AI, Gates maintains that this technological adoption "will be different" from other technical reconversions of recent decades – centuries, even. The big difference, in his opinion, is artificial intelligence's ability to replace human labor; and to do so at cruising speed. "Many cite the example of the transition from rural areas to office jobs, but this was implemented over generations, and it created new jobs that required human cognition. In this case, technology can replace it," he elaborates.

Unlike industrial revolutions, or the advent of the personal computer, Gates warns that AI will cause "many jobs to disappear forever"; without necessarily generating new ones in a similar volume. "There will be some new jobs; but, without the right policies, there will be far fewer than there are now," he argues.

In fact, he shares the concern of some Catalan tech entities, which already warn that AI is preventing young people from entering the labor market; as it appropriates tasks previously assigned to profiles with less experience. "After the adoption of AI, employment fell significantly among young workers in jobs most susceptible to being replaced, but not among their older colleagues," he considers; citing data drawn from an article written by experts from Stanford University.

Furthermore, the impact could be felt in all corners of the economy: "As AI can see, hear, talk, and reason; and will even do physical work, it will not only affect one sector." Artificial intelligence, combined with increasingly advanced robotics, could displace workers from physical tasks "by the end of this decade," according to Gates. Regarding intellectual tasks, he warns that technological advancement is leading it to "operate without a human monitoring it," due to the progressive reduction of errors in its reasoning and the self-correction capability that laboratories are seeking. Once this level of advancement is achieved, "companies will have every economic incentive" to leave it alone.

"Slow down" AI

In this regard, Gates warns that it is urgent to agree on plans to alleviate this impact, given that the first to suffer it will be the most vulnerable workers. "People who need more time are those who have less, like the $20-an-hour worker who will be replaced by a robot that costs $10." In this regard, the magnate maintains that "if someone had a credible plan to slow down global AI advances, he would support it." A plan, however, that for now does not exist; and that Gates even dismisses. "Economic and geopolitical incentives are pushing too hard to go at maximum speed," he laments.

In this regard, Gates opens several reflections on the possible tools that administrations, companies, and citizens would have to mitigate the negative impact of AI. One of the most striking is what he calls "jobs reserved for humans." "I believe that, as AI and robots progress, we will set aside some tasks so that only a human performs them," he points out. These protected jobs could carry a high social burden, such as caring for the elderly or terminally ill, but they could also be protected for economic reasons, in territories, for example, highly dependent on a sector. "We could reserve a job for humans because allowing machines to do it would displace too many people who could not change jobs," he observes.

He also points out fiscal solutions, with taxes that serve to slightly slow down the implementation of technologies and, at the same time, generate revenue for the administration to offer safeguards to citizens. A tax on AI and robotics "should be very specific so as not to slow down the beneficial uses of technology," but it should serve to ensure a just transition for affected workers. And he adds: "Critics point out that this idea is not economically efficient, but they do not consider the social value of work. We can afford a small inefficiency as the price for maintaining employment," he reflects.