Beyond the US: New markets for the agri-food sector in the State

MadridDonald Trump's new tariffs in the European Union have prompted companies to start looking to other markets. The push for diversification, in fact, is one of the key elements of the Spanish and Catalan governments' shock plan to address the new US tariff policy, although it is a market they do not want to abandon. as evidenced by the meetings between Pedro Sánchez's government and the Trump administration.

Among the affected companies are those dedicated to the agri-food sector, especially those engaged in the production and marketing of oil or wine. However, the agri-food sector may find similar demand to that of the United States in other countries and, therefore, open up new routes for exporting products. CaixaBank's research center has just detailed a list of these similar markets and highlights Austria, Finland, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

"In line with the need to diversify destinations to mitigate the impact of trade shocks such as tariffs, it is advisable to identify markets with demand patterns similar to those of North America. Countries such as Austria, Finland, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland are the most similar to potentially attractive ones for the reorientation of Spanish exports," it follows from theAgri-Food Sector Report 2025 that CaixaBank Research published this Tuesday morning.

Of these destinations, the United Kingdom is already an established market with little room for growth for Spanish agri-food exporters – of total agri-food exports in 2024, 6.8% were destined for this country. In contrast, the weight of the remaining countries is "quite small," the study's authors conclude. "This represents ample room for improvement in terms of trade penetration, especially for certain products," they add. For example, Finland and Austria only accounted for 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, of total sector exports in 2024.

Other obstacles

However, gaining a foothold in new markets also poses challenges. Beyond the similarity in demand patterns, the study points out that other factors must be taken into account, such as competition from companies already established in the country, but also those like the Spanish ones looking for new locations to sell, in addition to the destination market size or degree of trade accessibility. For example, Switzerland also has 18% tariffs on agri-food products, which poses an obstacle.

Trump has proposed fixed tariffs of 15% for European products, although the final agreement opens the door to possible strategic exceptions. Regarding the agri-food sector, Spanish exports to the US grew by 8.8% in the last six months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023 (a year marked by severe drought in the country). In fact, companies recorded an increase in sales, and therefore in demand, as a result of the uncertainty caused by the trade war. "This may reflect a demand-preserving effort by importers in the face of the tariff threat," the report highlights. However, in the first six months of 2025, the pace of export growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year.

In any case, the report notes an "expansionary tone" in the agri-food sector in 2025, and the growth path initiated in 2023, following the drought crisis, continues. Aside from the weather, cost containment and a rebound in demand explain the favorable performance of exports, which are now at pre-pandemic levels.