BBVA foresees that the economy of Catalonia will grow more than that of Madrid in 2027
According to the entity, next year the cycle of greatest growth of the Madrid community would be broken
BarcelonaIn 2027, the economy of Catalonia will grow more than that of Madrid, thus breaking with the trend of recent years, in which the increase in gross domestic product (GDP, an indicator of the size of an economy) is greater in Madrid than in Catalonia. In 2015, Madrid equaled Catalonia's weight in Spain's GDP, and in 2019 it overtook it and surpassed the Principality in terms of its weight in the Spanish economy. In fact, while Catalonia's weight in the Spanish GDP has remained stable since the year 2000, Madrid has gained weight and reached 20% in 2025.
According to the forecasts of BBVA Research –the blue bank's research service–, in 2027 the growth of Catalonia's GDP will stand at 2.3%, while that of Madrid will remain at 2.1%. Conversely, this year 2026, Madrid will still grow more than Catalonia: 2.8% compared to 2.6%.
Thus, the BBVA research service anticipates a change in trend in 2027 in the dynamism of the two communities that contribute the most to the Spanish economy. During recent years, Madrid has always grown a few tenths more than Catalonia, according to data provided by BBVA itself: 4.3% and 3.7% in 2024, 2.7% and 2.5% in 2025, and 2.8% and 2.6%, according to the forecast for this 2026.
According to BBVA Research, the Catalan economy will benefit this year from the dynamism of private consumption, job creation, and service exports, both tourism-related and non-tourism-related. Looking ahead to next year, however, the rising cost of energy, the persistence of inflation, and higher interest rates "could curb activity" throughout the State. The gradual recovery of goods exports will contribute to sustaining activity in Catalonia, in a scenario marked by international uncertainty.
The estimates from the BBVA research service are that the Catalan economy will maintain a growth rate in 2026 in line with the State as a whole, for which the entity has revised its forecast upwards to 2.6%. Catalonia would thus be below the Community of Madrid, with 2.8% growth, and the Valencian Community, which would lead the progress with 2.9%, partly still due to reconstruction aid following the DANA.
Energy prices
At the same time, BBVA Research warns that the persistence of high energy and other supply prices, together with interest rates higher than expected, may curb consumption and investment and reduce business margins.
For 2027, it maintains the growth forecast for Spanish GDP at 2.1% and places Catalonia's at 2.3%. The Catalan economy would continue to benefit from non-tourism service exports and the gradual recovery of goods sales abroad, but a lower boost in activity may limit growth.
