BBVA and Sabadell after the takeover bid went bankrupt: how are they facing 2026?

BarcelonaOn October 16th of last year, the banking episode that had dominated economic headlines for almost a year and a half came to an end: BBVA's hostile takeover bid for Banc Sabadell failed With only 25% acceptance from the second bank's shareholders, the offer was insufficient to move forward or launch a second takeover bid. Catalonia openly applauded the outcome, Sabadell celebrated with a massive party at the Palau Sant Jordi, and BBVA, led by Carlos Torres, accepted defeat. with a message of acceptanceA few months later, with a new year ahead, how are the two banks approaching 2026 after the takeover bid?

On the one hand, BBVA Chairman Carlos Torres stated last week in an interview published on the bank's website that BBVA expects to generate €49 billion of "top-quality" capital between 2025 and 2028, earmarked for financing. Torres reviewed 2025, which he described as a "magnificent" year that puts the bank in its "best position," and explained that of the €49 billion in capital it expects to generate, €13 billion will be allocated to finance organic growth in its main markets and €36 billion. "We are firmly committed to returning all excess capital above 12% to our shareholders in a disciplined manner," Torres affirmed. Furthermore, it highlighted that market capitalization has reached "a historic record of 115 billion euros."

Sabadell is also optimistic about the future. The Catalan bank states that its future outlook "is marked by growth, with a clear focus on profitability and capital generation that will translate into very attractive returns for shareholders." They also affirm that they will focus on growth "prudently and while preserving the risk profile," and that this growth will take place within Spain, "a mature economy with one of the most positive economic development prospects in Europe." Regarding dividends, the bank anticipates payouts of approximately 3.6 billion euros in the coming months. This figure includes €350 million corresponding to the second interim dividend paid on December 29, an additional payment of approximately €750 million charged to the 2025 financial year, and the extraordinary cash dividend of €2.5 billion from the sale of TSB, which was paid in the second quarter. (The stock market, it says.)

Since the takeover bid ended in mid-October 2025, BBVA's share price has risen by 34%, from €15.70 to its current value of €21. Meanwhile, Sabadell, which experienced exponential share price growth during the nine months following the takeover bid (49% higher than BBVA's), fell considerably after the outcome, and has since stagnated at €3.20 per share. However, according to sources at the bank chaired by Josep Oliu, "the share price recovered from the effect of the hostile takeover bid in just ten trading sessions." Analysts say that not only the share price but also the dividend yield should be considered. Jaume Puig, CEO of GVC Gaesco, points out that "on the day the takeover bid ended, BBVA also announced a share buyback and a dividend increase, which also explains the boost in the Basque bank's shares since then." He adds, "Both banks are now in a phase of stabilizing again and, moreover, fulfilling the commitments they made during the takeover bid," such as dividend payments and the implementation of their strategic plans. "What could harm the banking sector right now is an increase in non-performing loans, but currently the non-performing loan ratio is at a minimum for both banks, therefore, we can say that both are in a favorable situation." However, according to the economist, "BBVA still has a problem, which is its excessive dependence on emerging markets, which is why it launched the takeover bid. Therefore, if you buy BBVA, you are buying more uncertainty." On the other hand, Puig points out that "strategically it still makes sense to buy Sabadell shares, because it is estimated that its stock has room to rise to 4 euros per share," he asserts. "The dividend yield that Sabadell is currently offering its shareholders is much higher than that offered by BBVA," he concludes.

Separately and euphoric

BBVA and Sabadell will operate separately, at least in the near future. The challenges they face are different now. "Sabadell is focusing on organic growth; it still has a lot of supply to meet in Spain," Jordi Casas, president of the Association of Minority Shareholders of Banco Sabadell, told ARA. "The takeover bid has generated significant euphoria among the bank's staff, and reputationally, it's a sign of shareholder confidence in the bank," Casas said. This euphoria is also being felt at BBVA. In statements to ARA, Xavier Queralt, former regional director of BBVA in Catalonia until 2015, and previously CEO of UNIM and Catalunya Caixa – who emphasizes his separation from the Bilbao-based bank a decade ago – asserts that "at BBVA, not acquiring Sabadell hasn't meant a significant loss: it hasn't hindered their expansion into Italy and Germany, markets where there are still many banks, and for BBVA, which has a very strong competitive advantage in digital terms, these are countries where they can make inroads," Queralt points out. "In Catalonia, we experienced the takeover bid very emotionally, and that led people to believe it was a war and that the most important thing for BBVA was acquiring Sabadell, but meanwhile, BBVA was expanding into Germany, and so on," he explains. Regarding Torres's continued tenure despite the failed takeover bid, Queralt asserts that "the only ones who can force the president to resign are the shareholders, but considering that the share price has practically doubled, it wouldn't make sense for the shareholders to want him to resign," he emphasizes.

"The problem BBVA faces, and why Sabadell wanted it, is growing in the SME sector, which is one of the most difficult sectors to attract and retain," explains the former financier. "The biggest challenge in the banking world is with the self-employed and SMEs, because it's a very fragmented and unprofitable market; this is precisely Sabadell's strength—it has managed these clients very well," he says. "From a local perspective, BBVA's investments abroad might seem risky, but in the banking world, the most money is made in developing countries, because banks are the only bridge to accessing credit," Queralt elaborates. "In Turkey, it can only make a profit, and in countries like Venezuela or Argentina, BBVA has already recouped its investment and isn't counting on it, so even a small profit would be a huge achievement," he asserts. "On the other hand, Sabadell, with the sale of TSB—the UK subsidiary it sold to Banco Santander during the takeover bid—has abandoned any kind of expansion. Therefore, its strategy is concentrated on the Spanish market. From the perspective of SMEs, it's a good bank, but it hasn't been seen to have a presence in Spain, although it is largely digital, and it also has a very large business," says Queralt. "Therefore, if Sabadell's strategy is to grow in Spain, it's not clear that it has a profitable model for doing so."

Along the same lines, Oriol Amat, professor of economics at UPF, points out that "the banking sector is in the midst of a very important transformation, especially due to AI and a significant level of uncertainty." However, "both Sabadell and BBVA are very well-managed banks, but although size isn't fundamental, Sabadell should prepare itself in case another bank wants to take it over," says Amat. However, even though the takeover bid is now a thing of the past, it will surely still be the main topic of discussion at the annual results presentations of both banks, scheduled for next Thursday, January 29 (Sabadell), and February 5 (BBVA).