The Talgo acquisition is entering its final stretch without a foreign takeover bid in sight

MadridThe purchase of Talgo, or at least the stake of the English investment fund Trilantic (30%), is entering its final stretch without a foreign takeover bid in sight. Trilantic, the shareholder leading the Pegaso consortium (40% of Talgo's share capital), had set February 14 as the deadline to receive offers for its stake in the Spanish train manufacturer. After days of uncertainty, for now everything points to the fact that it will only have the offer from the Basque company Sidenor on the table, while the possibility of a foreign proposal, such as that of the Polish state fund PFR, has completely cooled off, market sources point out. The same has happened in the case of the Indian company Jupiter. All of this has translated into a stumble for Talgo on the stock market. The shares of the Spanish train manufacturer closed the day on Thursday at 3.91 euros, which represents a fall of more than 9% compared to yesterday Wednesday.

Although it is true that Jupiter has not made any official announcement, the PFR fund did confirm last weekend its intention to launch a takeover bid for 100% of Talgo's share capital "in the coming days". This Wednesday, and in view of the volatility of Talgo's shares on the stock exchange, it warned through the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) that "it had not yet made any decision".

The announcement coincided with the visit of the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, to Warsaw (Poland). Cuerpo was cautious about the possibility of an offer by PFR and even indicated that there is "room" beyond Talgo to strengthen railway relations between Spain and Poland. The minister said this just after meeting with the country's Minister of Infrastructure, the Minister of Economy and Technology and also the Minister of Finance.

It must be taken into account that the Spanish government considers Talgo a strategic company. In fact, Moncloa has always been more in favour of an offer that maintains a hard core of Spanish shareholders and in fact already vetoed the takeover bid by the Hungarian company Hungarian Wagonfor the entire share capital of Talgo. Market sources see Cuerpo's comments this week as a warning to other foreign operations.

Is the green light for Sidenor?

Given this scenario, it seems that the company with the best chance is Sidenor. The Basque steel company is leading an offer of 177 million euros (4.80 euros per share) in collaboration with the Basque regional government and the BBK and Vital foundations, shareholders of the Kutxabank bank. However, this offer is only for Trilantic's share (29.7%). "It is progressing appropriately," stated Cuerpo. "We hope to reach an agreement in the next few hours. We are confident," added the Basque Finance Minister, Nöel de Anjou, this Thursday afternoon.

Whatever the case, sources close to Talgo indicate that everything remains open until midnight on Friday.