The Iran war, the weakness of Hormuz and other pearls

The war in Iran does not impact our economy due to our economic and commercial relations with the area, but rather due to the effect on energy markets, especially oil and gas, which it has and will have in the near future. What truly weighs is not Tehran on our trade and our prices, it is Hormuz. We only need to recall the advanced CPI figure for March, 3.3%, one point higher than in February, with no change in the underlying inflation and, therefore, due to the increase in energy prices, in a context of weak growth in Europe and a not negligible slowdown of about one point in Spain and Catalonia, where the average citizen does not perceive growth improvements, per capita income does not change, and where the Treasury will be one of the beneficiaries of this higher inflation given that it does not correct tax progressivity (essentially income tax).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) already speaks of significant supply disruption in the oil market, in terms of quantities and prices; Brent crude flirted with $120, and we must wait some time to see if we are facing a simple episode of volatility, depending on how the war evolves, or a supply shock that implies loss of income and employment for net oil and gas consuming countries like all of Europe and even more so Spain.

The war does not arrive at an economy in frank expansion, but at an economy that is already losing momentum and a Europe economically hit by the Ukraine crisis and very weak growth, at a time when Spain and Catalonia entered 2026 with still solid growth, but in transition; with strong domestic demand, dynamic construction, an industry that is recovering and services that are slowing down, and, above all, with an external sector threatened by the trade war and American tariffs.

Economic growth and price increase estimates are beginning to be reduced very cautiously, because the variable is the duration of the war, the weak point is Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, and with the impact on oil production and trade, uncertainty again gains strength and no one can venture what will happen, but rather the range is widening with possible scenarios and assumptions. It is to be expected that the duration and impact will be minimal or consuming countries will pay a higher bill with unemployment and inflation, interest rate hikes, among others.

(12th century), when King Alfonso VI says to the Cid: “Things you have, Cid, that will make stones speakcosas veredes, erroneously attributed to Don Quixote for his squire Sancho, as it corresponds to the book Cantar de mio Cid (12th century), when King Alfonso VI says to the Cid: “Cosas tenedes, Cid, que farán fablar las piedras” (popularly, “veredes”).