Is the third option the best? Spain isn't giving up on the Eurogroup presidency.

BrusselsSpain does not give up and returns to test the waters to preside The body that brings together the eurozone's finance ministers each month: the Eurogroup. The two previous finance ministers in the Spanish government, the conservative Luis de Guindos and the progressive Nadia Calviño, both tried unsuccessfully to do so. Now, however, the current top finance official at the Moncloa Palace, Carlos Cuerpo, is making a strong comeback and has already contacted member state delegations to the European Union (EU) to find out if they would support him in a bid to lead the body, according to the magazine. Political and diplomatic sources confirm to ARA.

Several countries claim to have already received calls from Cuerpo's team requesting support, but the Ministry of Economy avoids giving further details. "We don't want to comment on speculation," they simply respond. In fact, despite the Spanish finance minister's ambitions, he has a very difficult task ahead, and the most likely outcome at this point is that Cuerpo will follow in the footsteps of his predecessors and end up failing in the endeavor.

However, the Economy Minister's move could give him a certain amount of notoriety within the corridors of the European institutions, even if it ends up coming out badly. Cuerpo is well acquainted with the engine room of the EU Council, where he is playing an active role, and has presented various initiatives with the aim of leading and influencing meetings with his financial counterparts from the countries of the single currency. He is also a technical profile who, as Secretary General of the Treasury, already participated in the negotiation of the EU's fiscal rules. However, his name is still largely unknown in Brussels, and this step could propel him onto the EU political scene.

Just look at the cases of De Guindos and Calviño. The former minister with the Popular Party is now vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), the central bank of the eurozone countries and responsible for euro monetary policy. And, as for the former vice president of the Spanish government and finance minister under Pedro Sánchez, she is now chairs the European Investment Bank (EIB), which is the financial arm of the European Union.

Convincing a conservative majority

The main obstacle the corps will face is the dominance of the European People's Party in the EU as a whole, and especially in the Eurogroup, and the difficult period the social democratic party is going through. Of the total of 20 seats in the organization, seven are controlled by the conservatives and only four by the socialists. To be elected president of the Eurogroup, he must have at least 11 votes.

The only factor that could work in favor of the Minister of Economy is the fact that countries vote not only based on political affinity, but also on geographical grounds, especially on economic issues. It is worth remembering that, for example, northern states have historically been staunch defenders of austerity, while southern states tend to favor more expansionary economic policies and close ranks in this regard.

In Calviño's case, these dynamics were evident. Due to political affinity, she had the support of the German government led by Olaf Scholz, and due to geographical reasons, she had the support of the French and Italian executives. However, the problem was the election system, which could also harm the Corps. Each country's vote counts equally when electing the Eurogroup president, regardless of its economic and demographic weight. Therefore, despite the favorable votes of the three largest eurozone economies—which represent 80% of the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP)—smaller countries—generally from northern Europe—opposed Calviño's candidacy en masse and opted to renew her position. the Irishman Paschal Donohoe, who has chaired the Eurogroup since 2020.

However, Cuerpo has not submitted an official candidacy. He still has until June 20, so he's just beginning to test the waters. The vote is scheduled for July 15. In fact, the state delegations to the EU consulted by ARA have yet to reveal their voting intentions and are simply confirming the intentions of Spain's finance minister. Be that as it may, Cuerpo should remain a minister if he ends up winning the Eurogroup presidency, and the mere fact of running for such an influential seat in the EU already gives him greater political relevance and influence to Brussels.