Antoni Bassas' analysis: 'Esquerra is giving us another two weeks' worth of neck support for funding'

Today, June 30th, marked the end of the deadline agreed upon by the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) and ERC (Spanish Left) to implement "the new, unique financing system for Catalonia." The agreement stipulated that the agreement would have to be "formalized during the first half of 2025 in the Bilateral Commission between the Catalan government and the Spanish government."

This was one of the conditions ERC set for the investiture of Salvador Illa. The goal was for the Catalan Tax Agency to collect all taxes, starting with personal income tax, by 2026.

But this weekend the president of Esquerra, Oriol Junqueras admitted that they will not arrive on time within the agreed deadlines., and almost immediately afterward, the Government announced that the meeting of the Generalitat-State Bilateral Commission will be held in two weeks, on Monday, July 14, at 12 noon. When a date and time are set so precisely, it means that an agreement can be announced. This weekend, ARA quoted several sources within the Government according to whom this meeting is expected to establish the "foundations" of the model and reach an agreement regarding personal income tax collection.

It's well known that when you touch money, especially if it's for Catalonia to receive something close to what it's entitled to based on its fiscal effort and needs, Spain goes into "unsupportive Catalans" mode. Of all the obstacles, one is clearly addressed: respect for the principle of ordinality. That is, if Catalonia is the third to pay, for example, it cannot be the tenth to receive. Anyone can understand this, although we haven't gotten over it yet.

But there are two major problems. One is the model, and the other is the figure. The model: will it be a unique financing system (as agreed) and will Catalonia leave the common financing regime, which is where it is now, as established by the Lofca, the organic law on the financing of the autonomous regions? And the figure: after agreeing on the model, how much extra money will Catalonia receive? This is the nightmare for the PSOE and the Spanish government, because the figure will lead to the headline "Sánchez buys the presidency in exchange for paying so many millions in Catalonia." It was already a nightmare in 2006, when Minister Castells refused to give a figure every time he was asked because he knew the scandal this would create in Spain.

And this is where the vice president of the government has arrived and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, with some enormous jugs of water to pour wine into. Unique financing? Montero said this weekend that financing for Catalonia "will not be isolated" from the rest of the regions. And now comes the triple somersault. According to Montero, "the new system will have to incorporate recognition of the unique features [...], but for everyone, not just Catalonia." So, judging by these words, we're back where we were: the system will be unique but generalizable, therefore, no departure from the Lofca. And be very careful with the final figure.

Junqueras also put the bandage before the wound when he said that the PSOE isn't ready to make bold decisions now. Depending on how you look at it, it's the other way around: if the PSOE wants to stay in power, it needs the votes of Catalonia. And those votes require compliance with the financing pact, designed to reduce a scandalous deficit. We'll have plenty of anti-Catalan demagoguery, as if the social rights of those who live in Catalonia were worth less than those of everyone else. But considering that demagoguery regarding Catalonia is a structural condition of Spanish politics, why should the Spanish government have trouble fulfilling the agreement with ERC? (Spoiler: because Montero is a candidate for the Andalusian Regional Government, and if Catalonia's financing is improved, they'll make her life miserable in the campaign.)

Good morning.