Immigration must be discussed, we cannot bury our heads in the sand: can ten million people fit in Catalonia? This is the star rhetorical question that has taken hold in public opinion and fuels the xenophobic discourse of the far-right. It is their main ideological fuel. The implicit conclusion: too many people are coming from outside. Of course, many of those who ask the question do not consider themselves xenophobic or far-right. But they have been caught in the web of great suspicion against newcomers, whom they blame for all our woes: the housing shortage (as if the real estate crash and tourism had not been decisive), the education crisis (as if it were not a global crisis), the strain on healthcare (it is ignored that the immigrant population is much younger and uses little healthcare), the stagnant vitality of the Catalan language (it is absurd to blame new speakers we want to attract), precarious employment (but the minimum wage has gone from €648 in 2015 to €1,221 in 2026)... Immigrants are an easy scapegoat to point at and be battered.

The Catalan population has gone from 6.2 million in 2000 to 8.2 in 2026. This is an extraordinary growth in the European context that has put access to housing and school under strain; in the first case due to increased demand, and in the second due to the sudden alteration of the student body's cultural composition. This is not a completely unforeseen change, as in 2002 Idescat published projections whose "medium-high" scenario has proven surprisingly accurate, but it is also true that this figure was between a "low scenario" of 6.7 million and a "high scenario" of 8.9.The latest projection by Idescat – published in 2024 – states that the Catalan population will be between 8.1 and 9.9 million in 2050. This is a very wide range, as it means that the population could either begin to decline or continue to grow very rapidly. In this context, the Proencat document, which guides decarbonization policy, predicts it will be 8.6 million, below Idescat's 'medium scenario'.Proencat, which guides decarbonization policy, predicts it will be 8.6 million, below Idescat's 'medium scenario'.However, and for whatever reasons, what has become popular is the prediction that Catalonia will reach 10 million inhabitants in 25 years. Minister Sílvia Paneque ("Catalonia will soon have 10 million") and deputy Elena Díaz ("The Catalonia of 10 million is not unviable") have repeatedly referred to it; President Illa has also done so, albeit more cautiously. Deputy David Cid, from Catalunya en Comú, has referred to it as a scenario that is not only probable but desirable ("We are 8 million, and if we are 10, better"). On the other hand, Oriol Junqueras has considered it a less attractive scenario ("The priority is not to be 10 million").It is clear that the most important thing that has happened in Catalonia in the last 25 years is demographic growth; much more than the independence process, for example. Obviously, if in 2050 Catalonia has around 10 million inhabitants, demographic growth will again be the most important thing that has happened. Consequently, preparing for it (as proposed by Illa, Paneque or Díaz) is more than justified.