The Chamber of Commerce has just published a note that questions a fundamental aspect of thePhoenix Report. To simplify, the report states that the Catalan economy has a productivity problem that makes it unsustainable, and that the main cause is one: the disproportionate growth of a few unproductive export sectors that can grow thanks to the massive incorporation of labor remunerated with low wages. On the other hand, the Chamber's document concludes that the productivity problem – which no one doubts – would not be concentrated in this type of sector, but rather would be generalized throughout the Catalan economy. For his part, Enric Fernández, chief economist at CaixaBank, agreed with this from "an article in ARA in which he affirmed that “the data […] confirm [that] the productivity problem is transversal”.The first problem with this conclusion is that it is wrong. The second is even more serious, and that is that it leads to inaction. To make ourselves understood: the debate is whether the illness has a localized cause that allows for a focused intervention or if the evil is diffuse and, therefore, what the sick person needs is rest and good food.Why is the conclusion false? The Chamber bases it on the analysis of the productivity of the different sectors of the Catalan economy. For lack of better data, it considers the ten macrosectors provided by Eurostat. It is a path that the authors of the Fènix Report embarked on and which did not lead us very far. So that the reader can grasp the problem, the ten macrosectors are so diverse that it makes no sense to compare their productivities (apparently, that of real estate activities would be five times higher than that of industry!). To top it off, tourism is not one of these ten sectors. The Chamber systematically identifies it with the sector “Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food service activities”. This is a very risky identification, as this sector is five times larger than tourism (for example, only 8% of retail trade is aimed at tourism). A more fertile approach must start from the fact that the productivity of an economy is determined by that of its exporting activities, even if these only represent a relatively modest fraction of the total. It may seem paradoxical, but this fact is what explains why, even though string quartets, McDonald's workers, chambermaids, and airport firefighters do exactly the same thing in the same way everywhere, they are much more productive in Switzerland than in Catalonia (and therefore earn much more there).Starting from this point, Catalonia's productivity is determined by that of its manufacturing and its tourism, as this is fundamentally what we export.

TheFènix Report, prepared by several renowned economists, has opened the debate on whether the Catalan economy is doing well or not. The study has caused controversy due to criticism of some productive sectors such as tourism and the meat industry, which it considers to be indirectly "subsidized", and for criticism of economic growth based on immigration rather than increased productivity of companies and workers.

The 'Fènix Report' argues that the current economic model is "unsustainable", focusing on the lack of productivity and offering proposals such as reducing tourism capacity. Do you agree with this diagnosis? What are the country's main challenges?

The Phoenix Report —which I co-authored— has managed to generate debate. Not as much as we would like, but more than we expected. In this article I would like to respond to some of the criticisms it is receiving most recurrently.1. GDP per capita is not (so) important. Some authors have suggested that the fact that a productive sector grows by attracting a large number of immigrants by paying them little reduces the averages of productivity (of labor, per hour worked) and income, but that this does not necessarily imply any harm to the rest. Andreu Mas-Colell, for example, wrote in ARA: “I state that this does not necessarily mean impoverishment, neither for the natives nor obviously for the immigrants”. Xavier Sala i Martín has suggested the same, emphasizing that GDP per capita is an average, and that, therefore, it can fall without affecting the situation of many. This argument overlooks an effect that everyone can observe: the impact of population growth on access to housing and public services: “If I am poor but the immigrant is poorer, he takes my school lunch scholarship”. When we consider these impacts, I fear that the growth of less productive sectors does — necessarily — lead to very general impoverishment. (More technically, the critique also forgets the Balassa-Samuelson effect, according to which the wages of most sectors of the economy depend on the wages in the exporting sectors, but this is an argument for academic economists.)2. Defeatism. Francesc Reguant has highlighted the tone of theReport: “I would like to express my surprise at the extraordinarily negative tone of the report [...] This catastrophic view is clearly exaggerated and imprudent”.

The ideological frameworks of the xenophobic right are making inroads into the political mainstream. Not so much due to the growth of Aliança Catalana as to the way its discourse is contaminating the rest of the party landscape. This is not unrelated to a moral victory for the far-right, but it also means that parties have decided not to turn their backs on an issue that people consider important, such as immigration management. And they do so by sweetening the most aggressive proposals of Sílvia Orriols' party.It is a similar process (with apologies for the comparison) to what the left has done with environmentalism, which was previously a ridiculed cause and labeled as hippy, until science made everyone realize that it was a matter of paramount importance. The posthumous victory of the green parties was not their hegemony, but the assumption of their ideology by the left – and part of the right – throughout the West.I don't think Aliança Catalana will conquer the central lane of Catalanism, but a part of its ideology, which is largely racist and fascistoid, will be integrated into the ideological corpus of the democratic right (in a format acceptable to its voters) and, finally, perhaps, by the left. The first step has been to accept that immigration is a problem, a challenge that should be presented as a socioeconomic issue and not in cultural or moral terms. This makes it easier to swallow.The debate now is not about races or cultures, but about the economic model: unchecked growth and the strain on public services. On these issues, the conclusion reached by economists (like the signatories of the Informe Fènix) is that Catalonia depends excessively on tourism, which gentrifies and saturates the territory, and furthermore encourages the massive import of cheap labor, which does not help sustain the welfare state. Immigration, therefore, is only beneficial for a part of the Catalan productive fabric (not only tourism, but also the agri-food industry), which exploits it and underpays it in exchange for collapsing public services. This approach, which disregards skin colors, religions, and burqas, makes the demographic debate more accessible to the majority forces.But the migratory debate is not only making headway through technification. The identity issue is reviving. Like any small nation, Catalans fear their dissolution, the sacrifice of their culture on the altar of globalization. At the same time, certain progressivism, while condemning racism and aporophobia, attacks tourists, expats, the mafias that hide behind the swarm of supermarkets and souvenir shops, and the vulture funds, which “merserve” our rejection because they are in a position of power with respect to the defenseless neighbors who have to abandon their neighborhood, the traditional commerce that closes its doors, the Catalan that disappears from the streets. It is a kind of progressive, tolerable xenophobia, where the weak is no longer the one who arrives but the one who welcomes.The problem is that, even though we point to a different enemy, the battle is very similar to the one defended by the far-right (first those from home, rejection of diversity, defense of values and autochthonous culture). We are opening a crack through which toxic ideas can infiltrate. While remembering that the ills of the Catalan production model are not only the fault of outsiders; they are, above all, the fault of the natives who exploit them.In this context, we must ensure that this ideological conversion serves a good purpose (disarming the far-right and bravely facing a real debate) and does not provide moral cover for racism. For this reason, it is very important to frame the debate and place it in the hands of wise people vaccinated against ethnic prejudice.

L’ on the state of the Catalan economy has the quality one would expect from the group of economists who have produced it. It conveys a strong message, albeit full of nuances. The aspect that interested me most is the conclusion (in Annex 5) that Catalonia has a segment of its economy – including industry – which, in terms of productivity, is comparable, for example, to the corresponding segment in the Basque Country. It reaffirms me in the conviction that we still have a solid foundation on which, if we set our minds to it and Europe helps, we can build a first-class economy. I also believe that this requires the spearhead of our development policies to pivot on the impetus of the most advanced and productive sectors.The report observes that we also have a segment of the economy with low productivity that has induced, and absorbed, in a short time, exceptional demographic growth. As a consequence, the averages for productivity (of labor, per hour worked) and income per person have widened the gap compared to the European average. I note that this does not necessarily mean impoverishment, neither for the native population nor, obviously, for immigrants. I also agree that a country's income per person is more important than absolute income, but, even so, size matters. At least in Catalonia, it dilutes the weight of debt and increases political weight.

The Fènix Report, in which I participated, has merited the attention of the media and many analysts, but no interest, for the moment, from those responsible for the country's economic policy. It must be said that, among those who have shown interest, the agreement on the diagnosis is very great. The prognosis, however, no one fully claims as their own. I think this is due, in part, to some misinterpretations, more or less intentional.

L'Informe Fènix presented this month, which warns of the impoverishment of Catalans due to our way of growing (and which confirms that our growth style is now a kind of malignant tumor), must henceforth form the basis of all political, social, civic or business action. It is a serious, grave, urgent, truth-filled wake-up call, because we are all feeling it on our skin and we don't need much proof (even though until now no one had given us the diagnosis and prognosis). The decline is totally perceptible, uncontainable, both in the political and social spheres and, therefore, inevitably, this ends up having its economic effects. We have lost our drive, partly for external reasons, but also for internal reasons and our own renunciations (or neglects), and the result is that Catalonia now seems to be unable to count on either an efficient ruling class or a business fabric that reaches where the government cannot. Until now, one thing had always compensated for the other. Now, on the other hand, the ground is barren, the landscape is a dry meadow with a cow squeezed to the point of hemorrhage, and, in the spiritual aspect, the demoralization is as general and clamorous as it is apparently inconsolable. Distributing blame is necessary, yes, but above all it will be necessary to distribute blame from now on, and specifically towards those who do not react.

The Fènix Report has been a very healthy wake-up call about the seriousness of the trajectory of the Catalan economy in recent years and in the last generation, with a GDP per capita that continues to drift away from the European average (twenty percentage points in the last twenty years –from 114% to 94%). 

Prepared by a group of renowned economists, the Fènix Report is undoubtedly a relevant contribution to public discourse. Those who shape—and we shape—opinion in the media often attribute a large part of the problems we have as a society to something called the economic model, and not infrequently we write or say that a change, or changes, in this model is necessary. Well, the Fènix Report presents a sound, rigorous, and straightforward exploration and diagnosis of the economic model in force in Catalonia during the first quarter of the 21st century. From 2000 to 2025, Catalonia has only lost sheets (GDP points) with each wash, meaning: in comparisons with regions in Europe, or America, with which Catalonia traditionally used to compete or be reflected, and which allowed for complacent or triumphalist expressions of the type “Catalonia, the Bavaria of Southern Europe” or “Catalonia, the European Massachusetts”. This kind of effusion has long since gone out of style, and in its place a chorus of resentful and phantom voices is heard preaching nationalist retreats or, directly, hate speech directed very especially against immigration. Indeed, the migratory flows that have arrived in Catalonia have only grown during these twenty-five years, and have led to a profound demographic transformation, summarized in the transition from Catalonia of six million to that of eight million inhabitants (the Fènix Report incorporates the forecast of ten million by 2050). It is no coincidence that, from the year 2000 until now, Catalonia, and especially Barcelona, has made its economy increasingly dependent on mass tourism and real estate speculation, two phenomena closely linked, often in the form of cause and effect. In these aspects, it can be said that Catalonia —especially Barcelona— has become Balearized, given that the Balearic Islands are, unfortunately, a benchmark in this economic model focused on low-productivity activities, unskilled labor, and low wages, on which the Fènix focuses. And it is true, as its authors indicate, that workers with excessively low wages do not contribute enough to cover the services they will use throughout their lives, thus “contributing” to the deterioration of the economic fabric and the impoverishment of the country as a whole.