The Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and the 2030 Agenda of the Spanish government has impacted the operations of the main market prediction platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, in Spain. The department led by Pablo Bustinduy has opened an sanctioning file against both platforms for operating in Spain without a gambling license, as Consum reported this Tuesday morning. Furthermore, it has ordered the blocking of both websites as a precautionary measure until the possible sanction is resolved.

Is everything subject to commodification? Can a war also turn uncertainty and tragedy into a negotiable asset? According to the figure reflected in the contracts on the Polymarket platform before Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, the odds of this happening within a specific timeframe (April 30) were slim. 26%. Within hours, however, following Tehran's statement, the odds rose to 44% before dropping slightly again, to 40%. And they have dropped even further, to 31%, after the Revolutionary Guard said this Saturday that it was closing it again. Bettors from all over the world have invested in one of the two possibilities (yes/no), nearly 15 million dollars.