Is everything subject to commodification? Can a war also turn uncertainty and tragedy into a negotiable asset? According to the figure reflected in the contracts on the Polymarket platform before Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, the odds of this happening within a specific timeframe (April 30) were slim. 26%. Within hours, however, following Tehran's statement, the odds rose to 44% before dropping slightly again, to 40%. And they have dropped even further, to 31%, after the Revolutionary Guard said this Saturday that it was closing it again. Bettors from all over the world have invested in one of the two possibilities (yes/no), nearly 15 million dollars.