The war in the Middle East and the new world disorder driven from the White House by Donald Trump has losers. The biggest losers are the populations suffering bombardments and embargoes and blockades. But there are also those who win. And by a lot. Some are those who play on event prediction platforms, as is the case with Polymarket. And also those who bet on markets based on the unpredictable statements of the US President, Donald Trump. More than one has fattened their portfolio with these plays with a certain aroma of insider information.

Sixty-five years ago, John F. Kennedy asked the world not to ask what the United States could do for it, but what they could do together "for the freedom of man." It was the expression of an idealism that, almost half a century later, would resonate in the inaugural address of the first African American president in the country's history. Barack Obama addressed "all other peoples and governments" to assure them that America was "a friend to every nation that seeks a future of peace and dignity" and that his country was prepared, once again, to exercise global leadership.

A few days ago, strolling through the streets of Istanbul, I was surprised by how familiar Turkey felt. The Ottoman mosques had shapes and details that would have fit perfectly in Italy; the flavors evoked a Mediterranean world; the old men in berets drinking on street corners could have been transplanted to Athens or Lisbon. The OttomansMarc David Baer argues that the Ottomans were clearly a European empire, participating in both milestones like the Renaissance and maritime exploration, and horrors like colonization and ethnic cleansing. The Ottoman Empire gave birth to the cafés that Steiner would later say represent Europe; it also created a model of religious tolerance—though not equality—at a time when Jews were being expelled and massacres between Catholics and Protestants were taking place in Europe. The narrative of a civilized Christian West and a barbaric Muslim East concealed far more commonalities than differences.