The olive trees will bloom abundantly this spring thanks to the rains of January and February. If the olive trees are laden with blossoms in May, as everything suggests, they will bear fruit in June, and then there will be a good olive oil harvest in the autumn. If so, adding to the previous year's production, which has also been good, there will be a surplus, and the price of olive oil can be maintained at 4 euros, as it is currently selling for. This is the producers' forecast, who also say that, with olives, as with many crops, there is never a sure thing. "Now in spring we can predict that next year the price of olive oil will be low, but everything can change if the summer temperatures are extreme, and then the tree suffers," says Paco González, of Olies Guadalimar, one of the most important producers in Jaén, who also mentions the possibility of a June harvest. In that case, the blossoms could fall and, therefore, the fruit won't develop, which is exactly what happened three years ago. In Catalonia, Toni Galceran, a producer and head of the olive oil branch at the Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of Catalonia, states that "it's very difficult to talk about it, about what the forecast will be, and right now it's like science fiction to explain anything, because it depends on the flowering in May, the fruiting in June, and the summer."

These are exceptional cases, when they exist at all, because extra virgin olive oil is one of the foods that undergoes the most analytical controls and is subject to European legislation. However, Frauds are becoming increasingly sophisticated. And some cases can go undetected in controls, as confirmed by scientist Alba Tres Oliver, professor in the Department of Nutrition, Food Science and Gastronomy at the University of Barcelona (UB). That's precisely why they have developed an advanced analytical tool to detect it. The news is that this validated and tested tool, created at the UB's Torribera Campus, has been agreed to be shared with the Department of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of the Government of Catalonia. Until now, they worked separately; next year they will join forces.

Food trends are like giant waves at sea: they devastate everything so that nothing remains the same. Avocado toast, the current craze that has endured in restaurants and homes for some time, has swept away the trend of bread with extra virgin olive oil and tomato. Besides overtaking it, it's also changing the agricultural landscape, because avocado cultivation has spread to the point that some orange groves and other traditional crops in the Valencian Community have already begun to be replaced by avocado orchards, which are unsustainable because they require much more irrigation. Furthermore, green fruit will never be able to match the nutritional properties of extra virgin olive oil, nor will it ever be as sustainable as an olive tree. In terms of nutrition and water consumption, Extra virgin olive oil wins every battle.

In Catalonia, olive oil is much more than a food: it is a landscape, a culture, and a way of life. In any gourmet shop, it is easy to find bottles or small cans of Siurana, Garrigues, or Ventalló at often prohibitive prices: half a liter can cost between 16 and 20 euros, and up to 230 in super-luxury editions, like Oldfargus 2000 oil from Maestrat, made with olives from ancient olive trees. A tradition that has been consolidated for centuries and is part of the Mediterranean identity.