The Federal Reserve (the Fed, the central bank of the United States) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged, despite the rising cost of living in recent months, the agency reported in a statement released this Wednesday. The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the internal body that makes monetary policy decisions) held between Tuesday and Wednesday was the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who has aligned himself only partially with the requests of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who since his return to the White House had demanded a cut in the price of money to boost economic growth.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to make a move to try to curb the rise in inflation caused by the war in the Middle East initiated by the United States and Israel. The rate of price increase in the eurozone has been moving away from Frankfurt's goal of keeping it at 2% annually for months, and finally, the financial institution has decided to act to prevent this percentage from growing further and has raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.25%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has been holding its fire for months. It did not want to make a misstep and prematurely use the main tool at its disposal to curb inflation caused by the war in Iran initiated by the United States and Israel. However, the price increase remains upward and is moving further and further away from the goal of keeping it at an annual rate of 2%. For this reason, experts and markets anticipate that the body led by Christine Lagarde has already loaded its ammunition and will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.25%, at this Thursday's meeting.

If in a country the central bank governor has to publicly deny having carried out a covert coup d'état to overthrow a democratic government, it is logical to think that the country may have a problem with its central bank – and with the governor in question. This is exactly what Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, had to do in November 2022, following the resignation of Liz Truss as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, only 44 days after taking office. As if Truss's bad luck were not enough, during her brief term, Queen Elizabeth II died.

When it is said that something can happen, it is likely to end up happening. This expression, used to refer to self-fulfilling prophecies, is common in the economic world. Throughout history, the belief that an event will occur has precipitated events. The list of examples is long: stock market crashes, compulsive consumer purchases, or deposit withdrawals are just a few. And citizens' expectations for controlling inflation are also a factor to consider.

What makes a meeting in a valley in the state of Wyoming, in an idyllic setting, so important? What makes the markets so focused on this annual gathering organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City under the protection of the Rocky Mountains, which begins today, Thursday, and ends on Saturday? Interest during these August dates is always high, because this conclave is attended by central bank governors from the world's leading countries, along with finance ministers and business leaders. This is not surprising, because many pragmatic issues, such as whether mortgages will become more or less expensive and whether there will be more or less credit to invest in, depend on what is discussed at this meeting without ties and in a relaxed and discreet atmosphere, not only in the US but globally.