The current situation is positive. Growth prospects remain good for this newly begun 2026. In general, Spanish companies are more optimistic than their European counterparts, although several variables cloud their potential, such as high tax rates and absenteeism—especially sick leave—according to employers' organizations. These are essential elements, they affirm, for improving competitiveness and productivity. A key positive point is exports—once the initial shock of tariffs in the trade policies implemented by Donald Trump in the US has subsided—despite geopolitical instability, according to the survey results. Business Outlook 2026 which are prepared annually by European chambers of commerce, including the Spanish chamber, chaired by José Luis Bonet.

2026 opens up for the Catalan economy and the Spanish economy as a whole in a context of transition and uncertainty, but also of opportunity. After several years of sustained growth, exceeding that of the Eurozone, we are entering a phase in which the tailwinds are moderating, and the main challenge is no longer growth itself, but how we grow and on what foundations. Forecasts indicate that Catalonia will continue to grow above the European average and, foreseeably, also above the Spanish average, albeit at a more moderate pace. This positive trend confirms the strength of our economic fabric, but at the same time highlights an uncomfortable reality: growth alone does not guarantee progress. If it does not translate into structural improvements, productivity, and social cohesion, it risks becoming exhausted. The structural challenges of a new cycle

In this new scenario, the priority must be clear: to consolidate a more robust, more competitive, and more inclusive economic model. And this requires addressing, without delay, some structural challenges that we have been dragging along for far too long.

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Catalonia is the fourth most economically competitive region in Spain, surpassed only by the two chartered communities (which have different funding systems), the Basque Country and Navarre, and the Community of Madrid, which benefits from being the capital. This is reflected in the ninth edition of theRegional competitiveness report in Spain 2025The report, presented by the General Council of Economists of Spain (CGE) and sponsored by Banc Sabadell, highlights that regional competitiveness is slowing its pace of progress in 2024, but the gaps between autonomous communities have narrowed over the last decade. Specifically, this study is based on the 2024 Regional Competitiveness Index (Icreg 2024) and provides a map of the state of territorial competitiveness in Spain, accompanied by a dynamic analysis to identify trends and the evolution of structural competitiveness. The analysis reveals that the average structural competitiveness of the 17 autonomous communities increased by 2% in 2024, in line with the average evolution of the 2008-2024 period, although showing a "progressive slowdown, having overcome many of the disruptions that have affected recent years." In 2024, the high competitiveness group remains comprised of the Community of Madrid, Navarre, and the Basque Country, although the latter two have swapped positions. Catalonia remains in the next tier as the sole member of the medium-high competitiveness level, and the group of communities with a relatively medium-low competitiveness level consists of La Rioja, Aragon, Galicia, Castile and León, Cantabria, and the Principality of Asturias, which has progressed from the low level. Finally, the low competitiveness group is made up of Murcia and the Valencian Community, which have swapped positions, Castile-La Mancha, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Andalusia, and Extremadura. The report highlights human capital, the institutional environment, and innovation as Catalonia's most dynamic areas. It also emphasizes the positive trend in long-term unemployment and temporary employment, continuing and adult education, as well as aspects such as inequality, employment, air traffic, and the fleet of environmentally friendly vehicles. Also noteworthy is business dynamism, research, and patents. In contrast, Catalonia has seen a negative trend in external openness, the deficit, productivity, R&D spending, and female employment.

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The world is changing. The entire international and geopolitical system that emerged from the Second World War has given way to another dominated by the struggle and competition for power, with two giants like the US and China, although the dollar has so far won the battle. And "in a fragmented world, being local and having roots is today a competitive advantage." This is a statement by José Juan Ruiz, president of the Elcano Royal Institute, a renowned expert. think tank private, which participated in the 28th edition of the National Congress of Family Business, held in Burgos under the motto Origin/Destination.

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Industrial policy is back in fashion. The new international environment is protectionist and prioritizes autonomy for reasons of security and resilience. It is the result of the converging trends of the lack of governance of globalization, rapid technological change, climate change, the pandemic, and war. The reinforcement of domestic production of goods considered essential (medicines, defense, food, etc.) is the order of the day for all the major blocs in the world, and the ownership structure of companies matters.

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"No, I don't want to run, because I'm too competitive, and in races I want to win," the teenager tells me. But he doesn't train, he doesn't run. His thing, well, isn't being competitive. This is about not wanting to lose when he deserves it. Which is very different. If he participated in a race, he would see that there are people who have trained more than him. That there are people, in fact, who live to train. It's normal for them to run more than him. Being competitive is working or enhancing your talents to win. What the teenager is telling me is that he doesn't like losing when he deserves it. And, therefore, he prefers not to compete.

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The last few days have been a series of reminders of the enormous weakness on which European prosperity is based, including Catalan prosperity, however precarious and improvable it may seem. Private assets that will end up in the hands of the US and its personnel. MAGA (remember: "Make America Great Again") is about making Europe (and other parts of the world) smaller—but nuclearly robust—like Israel. What can we do against this threat that is becoming more concrete every day? I see no alternative to a future of colonialism and slavery other than preparing to become stronger. Salvation, if we accept becoming colonies, leads—and it has always been this way throughout history—to various forms of slavery or servitude.

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It's one of the essential issues for an economy: increasing productivity, which translates into true progress. And the Spanish economy lacks that leg to gain quality, as reflected in the investment data as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), which is below the European average. However, it is competitive, as shown by the trade surplus data, that is, it earns more from what it sells abroad than what it pays to import. The opinion group EuropeG, co-directed by former Minister of Economy Antoni Castells and Professor Josep Oliver, has focused its new debate on this subject based on a study by Joan Ramon Rovira, head of research at the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce.

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