No one could have imagined, when the US and Israel launched the first attacks against Iran on Saturday, February 28, that especially Washington and, specifically, US President Donald Trump, had not foreseen the consequences. The evolution of events makes it increasingly clear: there was no strategy. At least, not on the part of the US. Another thing is the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which takes advantage of the opportunity to achieve its expansionist goals, with no regard for international law and human rights.

As Spain prepares to close a record year for mortgage signings, potentially exceeding 500,000 across the country—levels not seen in fifteen years—a changing cycle is beginning with rising interest rates. "Most financial institutions are raising interest rates on home loans" because no further rate cuts are expected in the short term from the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the comparison website HelpMyCash.

Imagine you have €50,000 in your account and you need to make a payment of exactly that amount to buy a car. You have two options: pay it all in cash or apply for financing for the same amount. The first option seems the safest, since it frees us from any future obligations, but at the same time it decapitalizes us and leaves us with no available savings. In contrast, the second option allows us to keep the €50,000 in the account and pay for the vehicle in installments. The secret lies in the return we can obtain from that money.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, has proclaimed a change of cycle. It all began after the pandemic and with the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: prices soared, and in an attempt to stem inflation, Frankfurt quickly and consistently raised interest rates—which had been stuck at 0% since 2016. Little by little, the rate of price increases has slowed, and the bank has cut the price of money at the same pace. Inflation has now stabilized around the 2% target, and therefore, this Thursday, the bank unanimously decided to keep interest rates at 2% at the ECB's governing council meeting.

Recent months have seen a bullish rally for the European stock market, and in the case of the Spanish stock market, the Ibex 35—the main Spanish index that groups the 35 most powerful companies—has been the subject of several headlines suggesting that the index was approaching its all-time high. This Friday, the index closed a weak week: it closed again below the 15,000 points it had managed to recover in August, remaining at 14,850.9. However, the index has accumulated growth of more than 30% in the last year (from August to August), and a 112% increase in the last five years, following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The word bubble Applied to housing, this creates fear. It reminds us of what we experienced seventeen years ago. Back then, the issue was financial, and the bubble of over-indebtedness burst, resulting in a demand that, in many cases, wasn't sufficiently solvent. Today, we can use the expression because we're not in that situation. As some experts claim, the current bubble It's about prices, meaning that the price per square meter is completely disconnected from income, wages, and economic growth. Its driving forces are demographic pressure, speculative investment, and the fall in credit prices.

With his obsession with imposing tariffs on all countries that don't yield to his demands, the US president demonstrates that he has little or no interest in the rules that have worked until now, nor in their enforcement. He hasn't hesitated for a second to rewrite them to his style and convenience, moving away from the canons of diplomacy and traditional political relations to achieve his goals, or at least make it seem that way.

What makes a meeting in a valley in the state of Wyoming, in an idyllic setting, so important? What makes the markets so focused on this annual gathering organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City under the protection of the Rocky Mountains, which begins today, Thursday, and ends on Saturday? Interest during these August dates is always high, because this conclave is attended by central bank governors from the world's leading countries, along with finance ministers and business leaders. This is not surprising, because many pragmatic issues, such as whether mortgages will become more or less expensive and whether there will be more or less credit to invest in, depend on what is discussed at this meeting without ties and in a relaxed and discreet atmosphere, not only in the US but globally.

None of Donald Trump's announcements regarding tariffs have gone unnoticed by the European Central Bank (ECB), just as it has not gone unnoticed the trade agreement between Europe and the United States to end, precisely, the tariff chaos and avoid an escalation of the trade war. This Wednesday, the president of the European banking institution, Christine Lagarde, announced that they will take the agreement reached into account when making a decision on interest rates at the next meeting, scheduled for September 14. Wednesday's meeting was Lagarde's first statement since the EU executive reached an agreement with the White House.

Negative or 0% interest rates have been one of the main headaches for Spanish banking for years. The sector has experienced this as a limit to its ability to make money from the banking business (this arises mainly from the difference between what the financial institution pays to obtain money and what it charges to lend it to companies or families). But in 2022, this changed completely.

No surprises in Frankfurt. Given the uncertainty surrounding the White House, the European Central Bank (ECB) has avoided any missteps and decided to keep interest rates at 2% while awaiting the outcome. the trade war between the European Union and the United StatesThis is the first time in 2025 that the banking institution has decided not to cut the price of money, following eight consecutive meetings of the ECB's governing council in which it had agreed to reduce it. "The environment remains exceptionally uncertain, particularly due to trade disputes," ECB President Christine Lagarde stated at a press conference.

The Federal Reserve (Fed, the United States central bank) is once again defying Donald Trump and keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% and 4.5%, despite pressure from the US president, who has threatened to demand a cut since taking office. The central bank has also updated its projections for the country's economy, now predicting only a 0.5 percentage point cut in interest rates by the end of the year, through two 0.25 percentage point cuts, the dates for which have yet to be set. The decision is justified by a forecast for the United States of lower economic growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation for the remainder of 2025.

Banks make their living from the difference between the interest at which they lend money and what they pay to hold it. During the six-year period from 2016 to July 2022—when the European Central Bank (ECB) began raising rates—they had to rely much more heavily on fees to make a profit. A new cycle of interest rate increases began in July 2022 and continued until September 2023, and bank profits soared. However, a new phase began in June 2024, resulting in cheaper mortgages, both those linked to the Euribor and new mortgages. However, the fact remains that deposit interest rates have fallen even further.