In June 1997, then-United States Senator Joe Biden, returning from a trip to Moscow where he had gone to reassure the Kremlin about the expansion of the Atlantic Alliance, told reporters that the Russians did not want “to even hear about this NATO expansion”, and admitted that Moscow had warned him that, if it happened, Russia's response would be to “turn to China”. Biden, taking for granted that a Sino-Russian rapprochement was unthinkable, boasted of having replied: “You know what? Good luck with that! And then, if it doesn't work out, you try Iran!” Biden's words made an audience laugh, unable to imagine, from Washington, a world in which Beijing would become a global pole of attraction. Three decades later, the world is being reconfigured around China and Donald Trump is caught in a war in Iran, with military impact throughout the region and the capacity for global economic disruption.

At Saturday's press conference, President Trump was quick to assert that the profits from the oil market would be sufficient to offset the cost of a military intervention in Venezuela and that American companies would clearly benefit. However, despite the rhetoric—and the seizure of ships carrying crude oil—a closer look at the facts reveals significant inconsistencies in the president's argument. First, the oil companies themselves quickly expressed their doubts. Modernizing facilities severely deteriorated by extracting heavy, dense, high-sulfur crude requires substantial investment. Such operations are only profitable if accompanied by strong guarantees of political and legal stability—conditions that are currently lacking. Furthermore, Venezuelan crude is not considered a critical or essential asset for the global energy supply. The United States has sufficient domestic production and guaranteed access to both Canadian and Arabian Peninsula oil. In fact, the collective intelligence of financial markets seems to have reached a similar conclusion: in the last week, oil prices have remained virtually stable, without significant upward or downward pressure.

The declared hostility between Washington and Beijing is shaping the international order today. And although the European Union is trying to escape the logic of blogs, its own weakness subordinates it to a reality defined by this confrontation. The trade war between the United States and China has a long list of collateral victims who are breathing a sigh of relief after the truce announced by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on restrictions to rare earth exports. Beijing confirmed on Saturday that this one-year delay will also apply to the European Union, which thus manages to reduce the pressure that threatened its manufacturers of cars, wind turbines, computers, and other technological products that saw their rare earth stockpiles endangered.

The United States has taken a new step in the de-escalation of the trade war with China, which began with talks last weekend in Geneva and was finalized on Monday with a mutual tariff reduction for 90 days. The Donald Trump administration has decided to reduce tariffs on small packages imported from China from 120% to 54% starting Wednesday. This measure gives breathing space to large Chinese e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu.