When the conflict with Iran began, I warned that the impact on the markets would probably be a matter of days. And, with the information we had then, it was a reasonable assessment: both investors and analysts (like me) expected a short conflict. The reality, however, is quite different.

I wish I could wrap up this series on Iran and our wallets soon. But reality is stubborn: the longer the conflict drags on, the deeper the economic consequences could be. For the moment, there's some respite. The price of fuel has fallen by nearly 20 cents per liter after the VAT reduction (after reaching €2). A great move by the government.

One of the most immediate effects of the war in Iran is the increase in mortgage costs. At first glance, it might seem that a distant war has no relation to the monthly payment of a mortgage loan, but the benchmark index for most variable-rate mortgages, Euribor, maintains a high correlation with interest rates, that is, with the cost of money.

We might think that the war in Iran is far away and doesn't directly affect us. But nothing could be further from the truth. This type of conflict has global economic consequences, and in this case, one of the main ones is the increase in the price of a key commodity: oil. When oil becomes more expensive, fuel also becomes more expensive—something you've probably already noticed—and, consequently, many other prices in the economy end up rising. In fact, this situation could generate inflation of 4% again at current prices.

The topic of the week has been the regularization of half a million immigrants. Although you might think it's not an economic issue, it's a topic that comes up in all my economics classes.

The Christmas and January holidays represent a peak in household spending. Given this reality, the key is not only to have planned ahead, but also to take advantage of the start of the year to establish a solid monthly budget. We're often told to cut back on "small expenses"—like coffee at the bar—but the goal isn't to deprive ourselves of little pleasures, but rather to better manage the big picture. To improve our financial health, there are only two paths: increase income or reduce expenses.

The past week has been very bad in the American markets, and also in the global markets, although this hasn't surprised anyone. 2025 is one of the best years for the stock market since the 2008 crisis, and it's normal that corrections will occur at some point. It's often said that declines are healthy because they allow for a more solid upward trend.

This week, the self-employed were the center of political and economic debate. The reason? A proposal by the Spanish government to increase their Social Security (SS) contributions over the next six years. This time, they've achieved a rare feat: getting the entire opposition to agree against them. The truth is, the internet has been filled with fallacies, so we're shedding some light.

According to the INE (National Institute of Statistics and Census), housing prices grew by 12.7% in the last year. Far from being a surprise, it is the result of a lack of supply, the demand for which continues to grow. In 2023, the State granted licenses to build 107,934 new homes. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, the population grew by 119,811 people. If we extrapolate this annually, population growth multiplies the new housing supply by five. Here we must add the demand from the existing population, second or subsequent homes, non-residents, etc.

Be very careful with credit cards that we never pay off. They're called revolving These loans are characterized by allowing small, fixed monthly payments or a percentage of the total. The big problem is that no matter how many installments we pay, it seems the debt doesn't decrease, or even increases. Why?

The Euribor is approaching 2%. Who would have thought it in January! The economic turmoil and Trump's policies predicted a spike in inflation, interest rates, and consequently, the Euribor, which would have made mortgages even more expensive. However, the twists in the script have resulted in the Euribor reaching its lowest level in the last three years.

In four months, when it seemed as though the euro and the dollar would be valued at 1 to 1, the dollar sank to nearly 1.15 euros. Although it may seem far away, it has several implications for us, and we can say that, for once, we have gained purchasing power.

100 euros in 2000 is equivalent to 40 euros in 2025. That's how we started. The pocket last week With the hypothesis that only through investment are we able to maintain purchasing power and, therefore, cope with inflation. Many people will tell us, "I have no idea how to invest in the stock market, and there's risk involved," as an argument to rule it out. Now, what if we want to achieve risk in our investments? We'll have to choose a portion of fixed income (corporate and government debt) and a portion of variable income (the stock market).

The data is grim. According to the financial association Asufin, only 14% of mortgages granted are for a primary residence, and 56% are used as an investment. Furthermore, nearly half of all purchases are made without any type of loan. As mortgage payers, what can we expect in the coming months?