Buying a flat is a decision made after crunching numbers and more numbers and weighing multiple variables. Among them, the money the buyer will have to disburse when the transaction materializes, which causes more than one or two headaches.

The real estate franchise Tecnocasa has turned to the thousand offices it has throughout Spain to analyze the housing market situation and conclude that "clearly, there is a change in cycle", in the words of the company's CEO, Paolo Boarini. "It is very difficult for prices to continue rising," he warned at the presentation of the report prepared by the Tecnocasa-Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) Chair this Wednesday.

A few days ago, the governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, warned that housing is a true national emergency. He is not wrong. This problem, which is a growing concern for citizens, has become the main source of growth in social inequality. Whichever data you look at, the diagnosis is always the same: there is more demand than supply, expensive and practically inaccessible for a large part of the population. And of the supply that exists, some is in the hands of non-residents or are apartments used for tourist rentals. In total, there are about 900,000 across the country, according to data from the Bank of Spain.

The sale price of housing in Catalonia during the first quarter has risen by 10.5% compared to the same period last year, below the state average of 12.9%, according to the housing price index published by the INE this Monday.

"Speculative home purchases are very low." This was the emphatic statement made on Tuesday by José Alberto Marín, Dean of the College of Notaries of Catalonia, following the presentation of the New Statistical Portal for NotariesThis free online tool provides "reliable" information on the housing market, according to the dean, because "all sales go through a notary." For Marín, the housing problem in Catalonia stems from two fronts: a lack of supply—because there is no new construction—and a lack of efficiency in administrative procedures, especially delays in granting building permits by local councils. These grievances are compounded by public transportation problems, particularly with commuter rail, which makes it more difficult for people to move to the suburbs, where prices are much lower than in the city of Barcelona.

The one-year Euribor, the main benchmark for variable-rate mortgages, registered its first increase since January in August, closing at an average of 2.114%, compared to 2.079% in July. However, variable-rate loans for home purchases will continue to decline, as this benchmark is still below what it was a year ago (3.166%). With this trend, with this Friday's index at 2.119%, it is expected that the high rate of mortgage granting, which reached its highest level in fifteen years, will continue.

It was a commitment made by Salvador Isla's government, agreed upon with the Comuneros (Commons). And this weekend it came into effect: the property transfer tax (ITPi AJD), which taxes second-hand property and real estate transactions, increases for properties over €600,000 and doubles, up to 20%, for purchases of buildings and from large owners, such as funds or large real estate companies. The Catalan law defines large owners as those with more than 10 properties or a built-up area of more than 1,500 square meters, but it is reduced for more than five properties in areas declared under pressure by the Generalitat (Catalan government), that is, where prices are regulated. There are 271 municipalities in Catalonia with this regulation, including Barcelona. These increases were included in a decree from last March, ratified in May, and which was scheduled to come into effect within three months, that is, as of last Friday, June 27.

The one-year Euribor, the benchmark for variable-rate mortgages, closed May at an average of 2.081%, compared to 2.143% in April. It thus falls to the level of August 2022, just months after emerging from the negative territory it had held for six years. The fall in this index, which could continue to fall below 2% by the end of the year, according to expert estimates, has the positive effect of lowering the payments for those linked to it and also the interest rate at which new loans are offered. The most immediate effect is that a typical 25-year mortgage of €156,698 (the one collected by the National Statistics Institute for March) with a spread of the Euribor plus one percentage point, will go from having a monthly payment of €887.07 to €749.70, a reduction of €1,648.44.

Home purchases by foreigners increased by 7% last year in Catalonia compared to 2023 levels. In total, foreigners purchased 21,642 properties in Catalonia, compared to 20,177 the previous year. This represents 14% of total sales, as 145,878 homes were sold in the Principality for the year as a whole, 11% more than in 2023. The price per square meter of homes also rose, up by 5%.

That access to housing remains almost a utopia for a large part of the population, even though it is recognized as a right under Article 47 of the Constitution, is evident. Buying and selling is difficult, and renting for primary residences is especially expensive, with increases far above salaries and a very limited supply. That's why Catalonia, which had already planned to contain rents received by homeowners during the previous term, was the first to apply the caps in so-called stressed areas, as provided for in the housing law that the PSOE-Sumar coalition government managed to pass almost two years ago.