Indicators of imbalances linked to real housing prices grew in 2024, which means that real estate overvaluation has increased. This is one of the conclusions drawn from the latest Financial Stability Report Prepared twice a year, in spring and winter, by the Bank of Spain (BdE). The institution now led by former Socialist minister José Luis Escrivá points out that the increase in demand for mortgage loans and a more "rigid" supply in the residential market is what has led to this scenario of rising housing prices. Despite posing a risk, the entity still views it with caution: "The [indicators of] imbalances have grown, but remain at moderate levels," noted the Director General of Financial Stability, Daniel Pérez Cid, during the informative presentation of the document this Tuesday.

Almost two months after publishing its macroeconomic forecasts for the next 3 years (2022, 2023 and 2024), the Bank of Spain (BdE) announced that it would revise them downwards. The duration of the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressure and, in particular, the increase in core inflation –the increase in prices without taking into account energy and food– as well as a growth of the economy in the first quarter which was more timid than expected, have led the supervisory body to forecast an increase in GDP of 4.1% in 2022 (0.4 percentage points less than in April, when it forecast growth of 4.5%). Thus, the BdE's projection is in line with that of the OECD (4.1%) and the European Commission (4%) and is slightly more pessimistic than the Spanish government's and the State's Audit Office's (4.3%).

The Spanish economy has not escaped the impact of the war in Ukraine. This was confirmed by the latest macroeconomic projections of the Bank of Spain published this Tuesday, which reduce GDP growth by one percentage point for both 2022 and 2023. Specifically, the Spanish economy will grow by 4.5% this year, while in December the Bank of Spain expected gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound by 5.4%. In 2023 it would be a timid 2.9%, one point less than the forecast 4 months ago, when a 3.9% growth was expected. The main reason behind this the rise in prices, especially energy prices. "We must be cautious", warn, however, sources at the Bank of Spain, who accept that the uncertainty about the evolution of the economy makes the elaboration of forecasts more complicated.

First it was the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE), then the OECD and now the Bank of Spain: all three have reduced their growth expectations for the Spanish economy in 2021 and 2022. The Bank of Spain estimates a 4.5% growth of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year, coinciding with the OECD, almost two points under the September forecast (6.3%). As for next year, the agency estimates that the economy will grow by 5.4%, four tenths less than expected in September. In this case, the downward revision is more moderate.