It is from spring when Europe prepares for winter, at least as far as the supply of natural gas is concerned to face the energy consumption of families and companies in the cold months, when it skyrockets. In April, when the underground natural gas storage facilities are already half empty from the cold period being left behind, the different member states begin to fill these deposits. Furthermore, doing so when demand falls – the arrival of good weather and the entry of more renewable energy translates into a drastic drop in gas consumption, especially in northern Europe where seasonality is very marked – means that companies buy fossil fuel at a more reasonable price.

Thursday, ARA put on its front page: “The expectation of a quick end to the war is encouraging markets”. Indeed, on Wednesday the Ibex-35 had risen by 3.16% because the conviction had spread that the war would end soon. However, on Thursday itself the index lost part of the previous day’s gains. This is tantamount to saying that the stock markets – that is, financiers – do not have clear ideas about how the war will impact the economy. Since the first bomb fell, the Ibex-35, like the American Dow Jones, has only fallen by 5%. To give us an idea of what the stock market does when a real crisis begins, at the end of 2007, and in a few weeks, the Ibex-35 fell by 33%, and did not begin to recover until seven years later. In contrast to the bewilderment of financiers, engineers show a solid pessimism. The International Energy Agency has published a ten-point plan of measures for governments to adopt to save energy, and the European Union commissioner has sent a letter to governments suggesting, among other things, rationing gasoline, promoting teleworking, and even prohibiting the circulation of private vehicles on Sundays (a measure in force during the energy crisis of the 70s). The basis for this view is that the energy infrastructures in the Persian Gulf have been so damaged that, even if the war ended today, supply would not be able to return to normal for several months.In this context, it is interesting to compare the Spanish government's response to that of the Chinese. The former has reacted by lowering the VAT levied on fuels, which has gone from 21% to 10%. This has meant that, despite the price of gasoline rising by 15%, the consumer only perceives a 4% increase. On the other hand, the Chinese government raised prices by 13% on the 23rd. The former, implicitly optimistic, tries to gain time, while the latter – prudent – prepares its population for the worst, and prefers them to start saving fuel from the outset.

The conflict in the Middle East has not gone unnoticed in the update of the Bank of Spain's macroeconomic forecasts, despite the short timeframe between the outbreak of the war and the preparation of a new report. The supervisory body acknowledges that the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran and the ramifications in the region will have an impact on the growth of the Spanish economy, but above all on the evolution of prices. In fact, if the conflict becomes entrenched, the average inflation rate for 2026 could soar to 5.9% due to disruptions in the global energy market. However, the body chaired by former socialist minister José Luis Escrivá estimates that the package of fiscal measures from the Spanish government, which was validated by Congress this Thursday, will help to "cushion" the economic shock of a war that, for now, does not seem to have an end.validated by Congress will help to "cushion" the economic shock of a war that, for now, does not seem to have an end.In general terms, the Bank of Spain (BdE) forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) will grow by 2.3% in 2026, as indicated in the report published this Friday. This may seem contradictory because it represents a slight improvement compared to the December forecasts, i.e., the pre-war forecasts, when the entity forecasted that the Spanish economy would grow by 2.2% in 2026.

Amidst the war in the Middle East and its consequent impact on the global gas and oil market, many countries have entered into a long-distance race to find who can guarantee them the supply of these fossil fuels, or ensure that the link with their main suppliers is robust. This is the case of Spain, which has just announced the "reinforcement" of the energy partnership with Algeria, on which the supply of natural gas to the State depends because it is its main source. For example, between January and December 2025, 34.5% of the natural gas that arrived in Spain (128,504 GWh) came from the African country, while this year Algerian gas already accounts for 29.2% of this fossil fuel (19,243 GWh). In fact, this reinforcement will translate into nothing more and nothing less than an "expansion" of the gas volumes arriving in the State from Algeria. The same happened in 2022, when the war in Ukraine and the consequent decisions of the West regarding its ties with Moscow, including starting to detach from Russian gas in the long term, increased the capacity of the pipeline connecting Spain with the Algerian country: from 8,000 million cubic meters to 10,000 million.

The Spanish government wants to approve a package of measures "as soon as possible" to mitigate the economic impact of the war in the Middle East, which is already putting pressure on energy prices, particularly diesel and gasoline. Although the Second Vice President and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, stated this Thursday morning that some measures will be approved at next week's cabinet meeting, a more cautious approach prevails at the Moncloa Palace. "We are working to make it happen as soon as possible," government sources indicate. And the Minister of Economy himself, Carlos Cuerpo, publicly addressed the issue after a meeting with unions and employers' associations to discuss, precisely, the economic impact of the conflict: "The priority is to finalize the text, and I cannot give a date for its approval," Cuerpo said at a press conference.

Elites seem to be losing their heads over degrowth. They are the ones however that they are out of step with reality, and out of step with recent scientific developments. Degrowth is a well-established scientific position, which has bee discussed at length in several major international reports, including by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN panel on biodiversity. Scientists argue that degrowth in high-income nations is necessary if we are going to stop biodiversity loss and decarbonize the economy fast enough to stay under 1.5 degrees, as per the Paris Agreement.

Almost two months after publishing its macroeconomic forecasts for the next 3 years (2022, 2023 and 2024), the Bank of Spain (BdE) announced that it would revise them downwards. The duration of the war in Ukraine, inflationary pressure and, in particular, the increase in core inflation –the increase in prices without taking into account energy and food– as well as a growth of the economy in the first quarter which was more timid than expected, have led the supervisory body to forecast an increase in GDP of 4.1% in 2022 (0.4 percentage points less than in April, when it forecast growth of 4.5%). Thus, the BdE's projection is in line with that of the OECD (4.1%) and the European Commission (4%) and is slightly more pessimistic than the Spanish government's and the State's Audit Office's (4.3%).

If everything goes according to the Spanish government's forecasts, as of Wednesday, May 4, consumers who have contracted a regulated electricity tariff, also known as PVPC (voluntary price for small consumers), will see a reduction in their bill of around 30%. This has been anticipated by the Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, on Wednesday. The Spanish government intends to approve the measure next week, limiting the price of gas to around 50 euros for 12 months, which received the go-ahead from Brussels yesterday. The goal is for the measure to come into force as soon as possible, in all likelihood next week.

Spain and Portugal have already agreed on the cap for gas-fired power plants (pending the European Commission's approval) in order to lower the electricity bill: €30 per MWh, according to Portuguese newspaper Público. This number was later confirmed by the Spanish Minister for Ecological Transition Teresa Ribera, in declarations to the media from Galicia. These days the two governments have been negotiating the figure, which has to be approved by Brussels, and which is part of the proposals that the Commission will allow the two countries to roll out after their "Iberian uniqueness" was recognised. However, this measure would be "exceptional" and "temporary", the two governments have reiterated, in order to bring down high electricity prices.

The economic emergency plan to counter the consequences of the war in Ukraine will also include measures to labour laws, housing and protection of the most vulnerable population. The package totals €16bn, €6bn in direct aid and tax rebates and €10bn in state-secured loans. "It is an unprecedented challenge", said the Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, in a press conference after the Council of Ministers. These are the details of the new measures.

The emergency plan to deal with the economic consequences derived from the energy crisis and the war in Ukraine hides more than one hitherto unknown legislative change. The regulation, which has been published by the Official State Gazette (BOE) this Wednesday, includes that supermarkets may limit the amount of products buyers can purchase. Specifically, it amends the Retail Trade Ordinance and establishes that "in the event of extraordinary circumstances", commercial establishments may "temporarily suspend the ban on limiting the quantity of items that can be purchased", according to the BOE.

The Council of Ministers gave the green light to a series of measures to counter the economic shock, especially the upward spiral of energy prices – electricity and fuels – which the war in Ukraine has fuelled. However, the problem of rising prices had been dragging on for a long time because of the base effect – a year ago the scenario was completely different – as well as bottlenecks and problems with the supply chain.

In the small town of Lützerah in Germany's Rhineland, brambles have eaten the sidewalks, the streets and the bus stop. Street lamps are not lit, doors and windows of houses are boarded up, and during the campaign for the German federal elections in September, not even election posters were visible. There were no longer any votes at stake: no one was registered on the electoral roll. All the neighbours have been forced to leave and sell their houses to the RWA, the coal mining company that, despite the coal blackout planned for the country for 2038 (and which the new federal government intends to bring forward to 2030), continues to grow and swallow up municipalities, fields and forests that have the misfortune to be on tons and tons of lignite.