Despite inflation and higher interest rates, the Spanish economy will continue to be the fastest-growing European economy next year. This is the forecast from CaixaBank Research's outlook for 2027. The estimates from the bank's research department, presented this Monday, point to a 2% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) next year, compared to 2.6% in the current fiscal year; and 1.4% for the eurozone (1% in 2026), as explained by Enric Fernández, chief economist at CaixaBank.

The prices of goods and services that families usually consume have continued to rise this month of October in the State, according to advance data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the cost of living for families) published this Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), despite a moderation in fuel prices. Furthermore, the state statistical body has also published preliminary data on the evolution of the Spanish economy between July and September, which maintained its growth rate and continues to expand above the European average.

The distancing of the economies of Catalonia and the autonomous community of Madrid has been a subject of debate over the last decade, both among economists and in the political sphere, as Catalonia has lost weight in comparison to the Spanish capital in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per inhabitant. According to a study by the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce, a significant part of this growing differential between the two territories is due to the existence of 221,000 people who, despite working in Madrid and, therefore, counting their professional activity within this autonomous community, reside in other provinces.

The growth trajectory of the Spanish economy is positive. On a macroeconomic scale, it is among the most dynamic developed countries. The problem arises when we zoom in with the microscope and detect that there is a worse distribution of the cake because the population is growing faster than the wealth. Hence the emergence of slogans such as inclusive growth, which is used, for example, by the government presided over by Salvador Illa.

Bombarded energy infrastructures. Hydrocarbon exports at discounted prices. Public finances stressed by the war effort. High inflation. This has been, for four and a half years, Russia's economic outlook since the president, Vladimir Putin, ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine that has led to one of the longest conflicts in the history of a country that is no stranger to belligerence.

Matching the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the main countries of the European Union (EU) may cost Spain between two and three decades of growth above the average. This is a path already initiated in 2013, but one that requires many more continuous years to equal the leaders in wealth per inhabitant, which are Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, known as the EMU4. This is pointed out by the document The sources of growth in Spain and the main European economies: total factor productivity and sectoral heterogeneity,published by the Bank of Spain.

The productive capacity of the Catalan industry remained practically flat in the month of July, while the Spanish one accelerated strongly. According to the latest data corresponding to the industrial production index, published by the National Statistics Institute this Thursday, the Catalan manufacturing sector accelerated only by 0.3% during the seventh month of the year, while the State average climbed by 2.6%.

Construction and services boosted the Catalan economy during the second quarter. Specifically, according to data from the Institute of Statistics of Catalonia (Idescat) published this Friday, the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) grew by 3% in Catalonia compared to the same period a year ago. The figure places the Catalan economy above the increase experienced in the rest of the State. The numbers are remarkable in a complicated context marked by the effects derived from the war in Iran and, above all, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has revised its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy upwards, but with caution. With the outbreak of the armed conflict in the Middle East at the beginning of this year, most economic institutions cut their growth forecasts in view of the negative impact the conflict would have on the global economy, but in the end the negative effects have been less severe. Despite this, the head of the entity's studies department, Joan Ramon Rovira, insisted that the international context is "very volatile", which is why forecasts can change rapidly.

Increase productivity. The Government sets this as a priority in order to continue growing the Catalan economy. In the annual report published by the Department of Economy and Finance, the Generalitat points out that "despite the intense process of accumulation of physical capital and labor", the per capita income of the country is growing "more weakly than the European Union average over the last quarter of a century". "This paradox therefore points to an inefficient evolution of productivity", indicates the study, which recognizes that total factor productivity (TFP) – the reference indicator for measuring productivity – "shows a worse trajectory" than that observed in the European Union.

TheFènix Report, prepared by several renowned economists, has opened the debate on whether the Catalan economy is doing well or not. The study has caused controversy due to criticism of some productive sectors such as tourism and the meat industry, which it considers to be indirectly "subsidized", and for criticism of economic growth based on immigration rather than increased productivity of companies and workers.

The large presence of multinationals – particularly, North American pharmaceutical companies – in Ireland's economy inflates the country's weight compared to its European Union partners, to the point that the adaptation of these companies to the tariffs imposed by the United States government has led the entire European economy to register negative growth rates in the first quarter of this year.

The Spanish economy held its ground in the first quarter of this year, despite the negative impact caused by the outbreak of the war in Iran and the consequences on energy markets and international trade. Household spending allowed the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State to maintain the good figures of the last three years, according to the National Statistics Institute (INE) reported this Thursday.

Philippe Aghion (Paris, 1956) won last year the Nobel Prize in Economics for his research on the impact of technology and innovation on economic development. Aghion, a professor at the prestigious Collège de France, Insead, and London School of Economics, currently focuses his work on the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in growth and how Europe can improve its policies to reduce dependence on Chinese and American tech giants.

The Spanish economy will maintain a "robust" growth rate despite the conflict in the Middle East and international uncertainty, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, the institution that groups the world's advanced economies). The economic body has revised its growth forecast for Spain in 2026 upwards by one tenth, to 2.2%, in line with the estimate maintained by the Spanish government.

While the eurozone continues to register an anemic economic growth, Spain remains the major economy that is growing the most. Brussels has improved the State's economic forecasts and estimates that this year it will increase its gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) by a tenth more than it had predicted, 2.4%. A percentage that far exceeds the average of 0.9% for the countries of the single currency and 1.1% for the European Union as a whole.

The Catalan economy will slow its growth this year, accompanied by an increase in prices, if the armed conflict in the Middle East is maintained or worsens, according to the economic forecasts of the Barcelona Chamber of Commerce.

The positive momentum of the Catalan economy will offset the geopolitical uncertainty caused by the war in Iran and the trade tensions over tariffs from the President of the United States, Donald Trump. According to the latest macroeconomic scenario for Catalonia, published this Monday by the Department of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat, Catalan gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) will grow by 2.3% in 2026, in line with the forecasts for the Spanish economy and above the main economies of the euro area. Similarly, the Govern expects around 100,000 jobs to be created over the next two years and for the employment rate to fall to 8.3% in 2027.

Catalan economists are currently more concerned about infrastructure than fiscal deficit, according to the winter 2026 Economic Situation Survey by the College of Economists of Catalonia. Problems in the functioning of Rodalies, the derailment that occurred on line R-1 at the beginning of the year, and the fatal accident on R-4 have led to a 13-point increase in the proportion of professionals who warn of the situation and consider it a priority issue to address. This is the opinion of 45.1% of respondents, above the 44.6% for the fiscal deficit with the State, which until now was the main concern of this professional group and has now moved to second place.

The Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.