Catalan economists are currently more concerned about infrastructure than fiscal deficit, according to the winter 2026 Economic Situation Survey by the College of Economists of Catalonia. Problems in the functioning of Rodalies, the derailment that occurred on line R-1 at the beginning of the year, and the fatal accident on R-4 have led to a 13-point increase in the proportion of professionals who warn of the situation and consider it a priority issue to address. This is the opinion of 45.1% of respondents, above the 44.6% for the fiscal deficit with the State, which until now was the main concern of this professional group and has now moved to second place.

The Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.

Catalonia's economy grew by 2.7% last year, one-tenth of a percentage point less than the Spanish average, but two-tenths of a point above the 2.5% forecast by the Catalan government last October, according to data from the Catalan Institute of Statistics (Idescat). This growth, largely driven by construction in the fourth quarter, exceeds expectations, but represents a significant slowdown compared to the 3.6% projected for 2024, a trend expected to continue in 2026 with a projected growth of 2.1%, according to the Catalan government's estimates. In any case, last year's growth remains well above the European Union (EU) average of 1.6%, and that of the main EU countries such as Germany (0.3%), France (0.9%), and Italy (0.7%), according to Eurostat data.

The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has described the current collapse of the railway system in Catalonia as a "tragedy" and has harshly criticized both the planning and execution so far of the commuter rail plan for 2020-2030. The Chamber denounced delays of hundreds of millions of euros in both the bidding and execution phases of infrastructure projects, according to business entity Alicia Casart. However, the Chamber's vice president, Miquel Martí, advocated giving "a vote of confidence" to the Ministry and the two state-owned companies that manage the affected infrastructure, Adif and Renfe. Specifically, Casart recalled that, prior to the system collapse two weeks ago, the commuter rail service had suffered from deficiencies for years, to the point that it had become "normal" for "users' patience to be routinely pushed beyond its limits," resulting in a "low quality" of the network. Therefore, she added, the commuter rail plan approved by the Spanish government was intended to "make up for lost time" and "bring the network up to date." This is complemented by the creation of a new mixed operating company with a stake held by the Catalan government (although the State retains a majority stake) and progress in transferring the infrastructure to the Catalan administration. However, the head of infrastructure at the Chamber of Commerce asserted that the plan is experiencing implementation delays, both in the bidding process for construction projects and in their execution. Thus, according to the initial plan, Adif, Renfe, and the Ministry of Transport are €800 million behind schedule. The execution of works and nearly €1 billion more in tenders—a delay that will ultimately penalize future projects as well: "Today's tenders are the news in Barcelona." Casart also criticized the plan's poor planning regarding the necessary actions. Specifically, the plan included a €1.018 billion program for replacing all types of assets on the network and at Renfe, which was progressing at a "fairly good" pace in 2024. However, that same year, the copper theft at Torre Baró triggered "a series of fires that crippled the Rodal network." This incident "set off all the alarms," ​​as it compounded other problems between 2023 and 2025, causing "a range of incidents that could not be explained solely by the volume of renovation work" being carried out on the railway infrastructure.

The Spanish economy accelerated its growth rate during the last three months of 2025, nearly doubling the expected growth rate for the eurozone, according to preliminary data released Friday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This placed Spain among the leading growth countries in the European Union for another quarter. Meanwhile, the cost of living for families moderated in January after three consecutive months of price increases.

The US economy continues to grow at a strong pace. US gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures economic activity) grew by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months, according to the second estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, Germany, Europe's largest economy, confirmed its return to growth, closing the last three months of last year with quarterly growth of 0.2%. In annualized figures, US GDP growth was 4.4%, six-tenths of a percentage point higher and the best figure in two years. This also represents a significant improvement over the 0.6% decline observed at the beginning of 2025, when US GDP fell for the first time since early 2022. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending and exports. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP calculations, decreased. Compared to the second quarter, household spending accelerated, and investment, exports, and government spending rebounded, while imports declined less in the third quarter than in the second.

The German economy, the largest in Europe, left behind the recession in 2025 and recovered growth after two consecutive years of declining economic activity.

The global economy is proving to be "more resilient than anticipated," despite persistent trade tensions and political uncertainty, according to the World Bank, which has revised its growth forecasts upward for this year and next to 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, after substantially improving its forecast for the current year. The organization's new projections, while implying a slight slowdown this year compared to the 2.7% growth rate projected for 2025, also represent a two-tenths of a percentage point improvement compared to the June forecast for 2026. Furthermore, the forecast for 2020-2022...

2026 opens up for the Catalan economy and the Spanish economy as a whole in a context of transition and uncertainty, but also of opportunity. After several years of sustained growth, exceeding that of the Eurozone, we are entering a phase in which the tailwinds are moderating, and the main challenge is no longer growth itself, but how we grow and on what foundations. Forecasts indicate that Catalonia will continue to grow above the European average and, foreseeably, also above the Spanish average, albeit at a more moderate pace. This positive trend confirms the strength of our economic fabric, but at the same time highlights an uncomfortable reality: growth alone does not guarantee progress. If it does not translate into structural improvements, productivity, and social cohesion, it risks becoming exhausted. The structural challenges of a new cycle

In this new scenario, the priority must be clear: to consolidate a more robust, more competitive, and more inclusive economic model. And this requires addressing, without delay, some structural challenges that we have been dragging along for far too long.

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If the stock market is the thermometer that indicates the health of an economy, in the case of the Spanish economy there would be no cause for complaint. Despite the highly polarized political context, it seems that for now it hasn't significantly impacted economic activity. Another issue, aside from macroeconomics, is the lack of budgets for the third consecutive year in both the national and Catalan governments.

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The US economy would have barely grown in the first half of 2025 were it not for the investment in data centers made by major artificial intelligence (AI) companies, according to a study by Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard. This data, corroborated by other economists, lends further weight to the argument that the AI industry is affected by a bubble that is causing its companies to become oversized. Specifically, Furman's calculations estimate that although investment in software and equipment represents only 4% of total US gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy), it contributed 92% of all growth recorded in the country between January and June. In other words, without the large investments in AI, the annualized growth rate of US GDP would have been only 0.1%, practically zero.

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The Catalan economy continues to grow at a slower pace than the Spanish economy compared to a year ago, but at a faster pace compared to the previous quarter, according to preliminary data on gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) for the third quarter of the year published this Thursday by Idescat, the statistics agency of the Catalan government. Furthermore, Catalonia's economic activity figures far exceed the European Union average. Specifically, between July and September, Catalan GDP expanded by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2014, a figure four-tenths of a percentage point below the average for the rest of Spain. the one recorded by the state GDP. So, Catalonia has had two consecutive quarters followed by an annual growth rate below Spain's after several years of faster growth. However, in the third quarter of this year, the Catalan economy grew by 0.7% compared to the second quarter, one-tenth of a percentage point more than the rate recorded for Spain as a whole. For another quarter, however, Catalan GDP maintained a growth rate well above the European average. Specifically, the total of the 27 EU member states grew by 1.5%, nine-tenths of a percentage point less than Catalonia, while the 20 countries of the eurozone (those that share the common currency) grew by 1.3%. Quarterly, they registered increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, also below Catalonia's 0.7%.

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The Spanish economy continued to grow during the summer at a rate significantly higher than that of most other European countries. Business investment and household consumption were the two main drivers of growth at a time when the external sector (exports and tourism) slowed its activity.

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The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce revised upwards its growth forecasts for the Catalan economy this year on Tuesday. The business institution believes that economic activity will rise in 2025 thanks to an improvement in household consumption and business investment, something that is also being reflected in the rise in productivity, one of the historically unresolved issues for the Catalan productive sector. Therefore, the president of the Chamber, Josep Santacreu, sent a message of "optimism" but with "caution."

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Family businesses view the economic situation with some optimism, giving it a score of 5.66 on a scale of 0 to 9, higher than they estimated a year ago. Nearly half expect moderate economic growth and limited net job creation, at 48%; although another 47% believe growth will be fragile without net job creation. 52% estimate they will maintain their current workforce.

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"Perhaps we're not doing entirely well," says economist Modesto Guinjoan (Riudoms, Baix Camp, 1954), regarding the state of the Catalan economy. On paper, the Spanish government, the Generalitat, unions, and employers' associations are happy: Spain is one of the leading countries in economic growth, and job creation in Europe and Catalonia has been growing faster than the national average for two years. The problem, according to Guinjoan, is not specific growth but rather the progress of the economy and, above all, of Catalan society.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again ranked Spain as the fastest-growing advanced economy. For this year, it has raised gross domestic product (GDP) growth by four-tenths of a percentage point compared to its estimate made last spring, to 2.9%, even higher than the Spanish government's forecast of 2.7%. And for next year, it estimates it will be 2%, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than the spring forecast.

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The Catalan government forecasts that the Catalan economy will grow by 2.5% this year, one-tenth less than the estimate made last spring due to the effects of the trade war, and by 2.1% next year, one-tenth more, as the impact of the tariff dispute is expected to diminish. These estimates are included in the 2025-2026 macroeconomic scenario of the Ministry of Economy, which "confirms the gradual normalization of the Catalan economy toward rates close to 2%, after a few years of unusually strong growth." According to the document, some 110,000 jobs will be created during the years 2025 and 2026, while the unemployment rate will stabilize at around 8% (8.4% in 2025 and 8.2% in 2026).

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Israeli-American Joel Mokyr, Frenchman Phillipe Aghion, and Canadian Peter Howitt are the three economists who have won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has recognized the laureates' quest for "having explained economic growth caused by innovation," as explained economic growth.

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The Spanish economy accelerated its growth rate during the second quarter of this year and even surpassed the figures recorded by the Catalan economy, according to data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Business investment and household consumption were the two main drivers in a period marked by the trade war between the United States and the European Union.

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