The Catalan economy will grow by 2.6% this year, three tenths more than what was forecast in the spring, but with risks due to the threat of rising inflation and the slowdown in investment. These are the forecasts from the Generalitat's Ministry of Economy, published this Monday for 2026 and 2027. In general, "a notable dynamism will be maintained despite the energy crisis," the document highlights. Looking ahead to 2027, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) will be more moderate and will stand at 2.1%. And the unemployment rate will remain at the lowest levels since 2008.

The World Economic Forum puts figures to the feeling that traveling is becoming increasingly expensive. The organization that gathers the elite of the global economy and politics in Davos warns that, since 2024, tourism prices have soared above inflation in 75% of destinations, according to a recent report consulted by ARA. The Travel & tourism development index 2026 concludes that the tourism sector worldwide has lost price competitiveness in the last two years, even though the influx of visitors on a global scale has continued to grow.

The Spanish economy remains at the forefront of advanced countries in growth, with a forecast of 2.6% this year according to the Bank of Spain and 2.5% according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But inflation, they also warn, eats away at the purchasing power of wages that are not enough to buy or rent a house. The remuneration of employees has gained weight in the Spanish economy, but it is starting to lose it in favor of the profits of some business sectors. Workers perceive that with every euro they buy fewer and fewer things, or that they need more to acquire the same. There is a palpable reality, the rise in prices, which has stalled the contribution of wages to the total wealth this year, and a psychological element, according to the experts consulted, which makes many ask themselves: "Now that the economy is doing well, when is it my turn?"

The cost of living for families continues to rise due to the increase in energy prices –particularly fuels–, and it is at its highest since February 2023 for the second consecutive month. Specifically, in September, the prices of all consumer goods and services in Catalonia soared by 4.5% compared to the same month a year ago, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published this Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

In the summer, when it was already clear that the Iran war was going to be a long one, at the register of a fairly well-known coffee shop chain in Washington, a discreet sign was framed in black. "A notice to our customers: from time to time, we have to adjust our prices to reflect the rising cost of ingredients and operations." In the pastry and cake display case, it was easy to spot the slight increase. The butter cookies with chocolate, which previously cost 90 cents each, now cost a dollar.

The growth trajectory of the Spanish economy is positive. On a macroeconomic scale, it is among the most dynamic developed countries. The problem arises when we zoom in with the microscope and detect that there is a worse distribution of the cake because the population is growing faster than the wealth. Hence the emergence of slogans such as inclusive growth, which is used, for example, by the government presided over by Salvador Illa.

The Bank of Spain has increased its inflation forecasts, which it places, for this year and 2027, well above the targets set by the European Central Bank (ECB). The monetary body presented its quarterly macroeconomic forecast report this Friday, in which it also forecasts the growth of the Spanish economy.

The year-on-year inflation rate for the euro area stood at 3.8% in September, six tenths of a percentage point above the price increase in August, according to the preliminary reading of the data published this Friday by Eurostat, the European statistics office. The year-on-year price increase of 3.8% is the highest rise since September 2023, when the increase was 4.3%.

Not so long ago, the United States, the world's leading power, was perceived as a reliable economy, with stability and legal certainty. With Donald Trump in the White House, this image has changed, based on the comings and goings of tariff policy and the conflicts he has generated—such as the war with Iran. This is indicated by the interest rates on 10-year US Treasury debt, which have soared above 5.3%, well above the 5% threshold considered dangerous for an economy with a debt exceeding 40 trillion dollars.

The rise in fuel prices –provoked by the sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the war in Iran– gives no respite and triggers inflation in Spain. Thus, this September, the cost of living for families has stood at 4.9% above the same month last year, the highest rate since February 2023, according to advance data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by families) published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

With inflation once again through the roof and without prospects of it falling imminently –the European Central Bank (ECB) has resumed raising interest rates–, the Spanish government has been forced to extend part of the measures put in place due to the war in Iran, which were set to expire this September 30th. It is, therefore, the third package of measures approved by Pedro Sánchez's executive to mitigate the effects of the conflict on the cost of living, and it will cost the public coffers 12 billion euros.

Jaume Collboni has returned from New York with an idea under his arm. After meeting with Mayor Mamdani, he announced that Barcelona will have a network of affordable shops. The concern is easy to understand: in five years, the purchase of food has become nearly 30% more expensive, and for many families this item already weighs too much on the family budget. The proposal also has a certain glamour: it has been presented as a "genuinely New York experience". But what does it exactly mean to make shopping more affordable?It may be difficult for us to fill the fridge for different reasons. Perhaps in the neighborhood we do not have enough supply of fresh produce. Or perhaps we have supermarkets and shops within reach, but we cannot afford their prices. In one case, there is a lack of supply; in the other, purchasing power: having a store downstairs is useless if we cannot pay for it. Both hinder access to adequate nutrition, but they are not the same problem nor do they require the same response.The City Council's pilot project will begin in La Marina del Prat Vermell, a growing neighborhood where the commercial offer is still limited. Bringing fresh produce there responds to the first of the problems and makes sense. But the project wants to go further: it not only promises proximity, but also affordable prices. And here begins the most interesting question: what will make them so? Because lowering the price has a cost: someone has to assume it, be it the City Council, the manager, the suppliers, or a combination of all three.There is no single way to lower the cost of groceries. New York is planning five municipal supermarkets: the city covers part of the costs and requires the savings to be passed on to prices, with a discount for everyone who shops there. Istanbul, on the other hand, has for decades combined a public network of food at low prices with aid directed at families with fewer resources. In the first case, public support makes the same basket cheaper regardless of who is doing the shopping; in the second, part of the effort is concentrated on those with lower income. Each formula allocates public resources differently and does not necessarily benefit the same families.Barcelona, furthermore, does not start from zero. It has a network of municipal markets, farmers' markets, and consumer cooperatives, as well as experience with aid such as prepaid cards. It already has, therefore, instruments to act both on supply and on the purchasing power of families. The question is whether it is necessary to create a new structure or if part of the objective can be achieved by reinforcing, connecting, or reorienting those that already exist. In Marina itself, in fact, the City Council was already working to promote local commerce before the trip to New York. Looking at what other cities are doing can be useful, but the question is not where we import the idea from, but who we want to reach, with what instrument, and what problem we want to solve.

The First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, confirmed this Wednesday in Congress that the new decree on aid for the inflationary crisis derived from the conflict in the Middle East will be approved at the Council of Ministers next Tuesday, September 29. Some of the current measures will cease to be in force on October 1 if they are not extended.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has again revised upwards Spain's growth forecast for this year to 2.6%, four tenths of a percentage point higher than the estimates made in June. Furthermore, the organization has also revised upwards by one tenth of a percentage point Spain's forecasts for 2027, due to an improvement in domestic demand of one tenth. Thus, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) of the State for 2027 is placed at 1.8%.

The escalation of prices, particularly of fuel, due to the war in Iran is forcing the Spanish government to continue deploying aid aimed at families, businesses, and the sectors most affected such as transport or the agri-food sector (with the start of the war, a package of measures was launched that expires this September 30). This is taken for granted at the Ministry of Economy and has been conveyed as such by the head of this portfolio, Carlos Cuerpo, to unions and employers' associations in a meeting this Thursday.

The president of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), Kevin Warsh, faces the challenge this Wednesday of raising interest rates to combat inflation, which stood at 3.4% in August, far from the 2% target. Markets and investors take for granted a quarter-point increase, with a probability of more than 90%, according to the digital tool Fedwatch CME. But there is a problem: this is precisely the opposite of what the country's president, Donald Trump, who pushed for Warsh's appointment, wants. The head of the White House, in addition, threatened to cut off trade with all countries with which it has a trade deficit if the Fed does not lower the price of money, currently situated between 3.50% and 3.75%, after keeping it in July.

The cost of living for families continues to rise due to the increase in energy prices. In August, the prices of the set of consumer goods and services in Catalonia shot up by 4% annually, the highest figure since January 2023, but lower than the Spanish average, according to data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

A kind of perfect storm is taking over the world: gas prices are climbing like never before (which means that everything will go up even more) and in a matter of four days the fear that artificial intelligence will get out of control and kill us all (and that, along the way, it will sink jobs, stock markets, and the Chinese Communist Party) has increased exponentially.

Public debt yields have experienced a significant climb in recent weeks, reaching levels not seen in two decades. Fears of inflation and, therefore, the forecast of new interest rate hikes have driven sales of these assets. The fact is that if the cost of living becomes more expensive, the fixed interest paid by a bond loses purchasing power and, consequently, investors sell the securities they hold in their portfolios and demand higher profitability on new issues.

I hope you have had a good summer. An inflation rate of 4.3% in August is the prelude to an end of the year that will make us all poorer. To put it simply, especially for those of you who do not like risk, it would be like a stock falling by 4.3%. Doing nothing with our money makes us lose purchasing power. The main cause? The high price of fuel. And do you know who wins no matter what happens? A VAT and personal income tax collection (if wages rise) that is at historical highs. The more expensive the supermarket is, the more VAT we pay.