A kind of perfect storm is taking over the world: gas prices are climbing like never before (which means that everything will go up even more) and in a matter of four days the fear that artificial intelligence will get out of control and kill us all (and that, along the way, it will sink jobs, stock markets, and the Chinese Communist Party) has increased exponentially.

Public debt yields have experienced a significant climb in recent weeks, reaching levels not seen in two decades. Fears of inflation and, therefore, the forecast of new interest rate hikes have driven sales of these assets. The fact is that if the cost of living becomes more expensive, the fixed interest paid by a bond loses purchasing power and, consequently, investors sell the securities they hold in their portfolios and demand higher profitability on new issues.

I hope you have had a good summer. An inflation rate of 4.3% in August is the prelude to an end of the year that will make us all poorer. To put it simply, especially for those of you who do not like risk, it would be like a stock falling by 4.3%. Doing nothing with our money makes us lose purchasing power. The main cause? The high price of fuel. And do you know who wins no matter what happens? A VAT and personal income tax collection (if wages rise) that is at historical highs. The more expensive the supermarket is, the more VAT we pay.

September 1st marks the beginning of the political, social, and educational year. One could also speak of a new school year for household economies which, in 2026, appears to be tough, with a generalized price increase that directly impacts families' spending power, after a particularly expensive summer mainly due to the rising cost of energy.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, has insinuated without much specificity that there could be interest rate hikes. Not wanting to give too many clues about his future actions and advocating for a "more discreet" central bank, he admitted that controlling inflation will be a priority, during his intervention at the meeting of central bankers, politicians and academics held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA.

The meeting of central bankers, academics, politicians and businessmen in Jackson Hole – the mountain area of the state of Wyoming, in the United States – which began this Thursday, marks the economic week and the start of the course. The summit, which lasts until Saturday, has an impact not only on the world's leading economy, but on that of the entire planet. It is expected that the president of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) of the USA, the country's central bank, Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell last May, will give clues this Friday in his speech as host about his policy against inflation. In the time he has been in office, he has not yet clarified it. Despite assuring that his objective is that the general increase in prices be 2%, far from the current level, he has not explained what path he will follow to achieve it. This has generated doubts among investors.

The debt of the United States has surpassed the threshold of 40 trillion dollars, above its gross domestic product (GDP), that is, the value of all the wealth it generates in a year, which exceeds 30 trillion. In the second term of President Donald Trump, which began in January of last year, about 4 trillion has been added due to the costs of the war with Iran. And the tariffs he had imposed globally stopped being collected after the Supreme Court annulled them. The solution will not come through other revenues, through tax cuts for companies and large fortunes. All of this, together with Trump's unpredictability, raises doubts about the economy of the world's leading power. Uncertainty has costs and is expensive.

In a world dominated by uncertainty and with a completely unpredictable President of the United States, public debt, which countries issue to finance themselves, has soared to yields like those of 20 years ago, in a crisis phase.

The tension in the fuel market caused by the war in the Middle East continues to put pressure on consumers' pockets. As confirmed this Thursday by the Spanish government, diesel has become expensive enough during the month of July to reinstate the hydrocarbon tax reduction to 20 cents per liter.

The Spanish economy maintained its high growth rate of recent years in the second quarter of 2026, above the European average. However, at the same time, the cost of living for families continues to rise, and this July will close at its highest levels since May 2024.

During the last few decades, inflation has had a very clear image. It was the bottle of oil, the loaf of bread, or the shopping basket. Families would go to the supermarket and check that, with the same money, they filled the cart less. This feeling marked the economic debate for a long time.Today inflation continues to be present, but it has changed its nature.The latest CPI data show that food no longer leads price increases as it did during the inflationary crisis. Instead, services and some unavoidable expenses are gaining weight: insurance, repairs, education, hospitality, telephony, or certain supplies are registering increases higher than those of many consumer goods. General inflation remains around 3%, but its composition is no longer the same.It may seem like a statistical nuance. In reality, it changes how families perceive the loss of purchasing power. Let me explain: when the price of an appliance goes up, many people can postpone the purchase for a few months or wait for a sale. On the other hand, with many services, there is no room to postpone it. Car insurance is due when it's due. Dental check-ups hardly allow for postponements. The bill for certain utilities or the price of many daily activities are part of households' monthly budget.That is why this new inflation is less visible, but more persistent and more difficult to manage in family budgets. It is no longer concentrated on a specific product that grabs headlines. It is spread across numerous expenses that, one by one, seem manageable. Added together, they end up affecting the consumption capacity of many families.This change also has consequences for businesses. During the energy crisis, it was enough to explain that the cost of raw materials or transport had increased. Today, a growing part of the pressure comes from overhead expenses. These are increases that are more difficult to absorb and also more difficult to reverse.My recommendation for personal finance is not to stop tracking how much it costs to fill the shopping cart, but to pay more attention to the set of small payments we make throughout the month. Often it is here where the real wear and tear on the family budget occurs.Inflation is like that. It changes form, sectors, protagonists. It also changes how it affects the domestic economy. Understanding this shift is almost as important as controlling supermarket prices. It's true that with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, we've experienced it with electricity and fuels, but now it's much harder to combat. It's the other inflation.

An important part of the costs that companies assume to improve salaries in line with inflation is not reaching the pockets of workers. This is how the Catalan employers' association for small and medium-sized enterprises, Pimec, details it in a report published this Thursday dedicated to the so-called "fiscal drag, or progressivity in the cold. It is the dysfunction that arises when salary increases associated with price increases do not have a fiscal replica in the form of IRPF deflation. "A perversion occurs, and that is that we raise salaries, but this does not translate into more purchasing power," denounced the president of the business association, Antoni Cañete.

The memorandum signed on June 17 by Iran and the United States is not fully consolidated. Attacks and reprisals on both sides continue to strain the Strait of Hormuz and, consequently, the price of oil, which had recovered, albeit briefly, to its pre-conflict price. Forecasts suggest that the price per barrel will remain high if the situation does not stabilize. In this context, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years, with the aim of curbing inflation that had reached 3.2% in the euro area.

The cost of living in Spain remains high this June. The prices of goods and services consumed by families have accelerated their growth, mainly due to the end of tax reductions on electricity and gas that the Spanish government had approved last March and which expired from June 1st.

If the council of ministers convened for Monday, June 29, does not decide to extend the exceptional fiscal measures regarding VAT and fuel taxes, filling the tank from July 1 will be significantly more expensive for Spanish consumers. The war in Iran and the tension of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz sent the price of a Brent barrel soaring in mid-March, causing the Spanish government to react through a royal decree-law that, among other measures, reduced the VAT rate from 21% to 10%, a move that generated some criticism from the European Commission, which has never approved this decision.The reduction in VAT and the tax on hydrocarbons allowed for a reduction in the price of diesel and gasoline, which at the peak of the crisis had reached over two euros per liter, down to the current average of 1.42 euros per liter for gasoline and 1.47 euros per liter for diesel. This move also helped to somewhat control the inflationary trend in the Spanish economy and stabilize it around 3%.An increase of up to 30 cents

The provisional calm in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have allowed the price of a barrel of Brent to be positioned around 78 dollars per barrel, far from the peaks of 120 dollars per barrel of crude that were paid at the height of the crisis. This more favorable international scenario and community pressure to recover the tax rates on hydrocarbons prior to the Iran war would be two decisive conditions for not extending the extraordinary measures for individuals approved in May. For instance, Germany has taken clear leadership at the European level and has already announced that it will not extend the temporary fiscal measures on hydrocarbons.However, this reduction in the price of the Brent barrel has not been very noticeable at petrol stations, which warn of the dire consequences for the Spanish economy if these temporary measures are eliminated. The Spanish Confederation of Employers of Service Stations (CEEES) has calculated that the return to VAT at 21% and the end of the reduction in hydrocarbon taxes will have a combined effect that could increase prices by up to 29 cents per litre for petrol and 22 cents per litre for diesel. This would place the average price per litre of petrol at around 1.74 or 1.75 euros per litre for petrol and diesel, respectively. In practical terms, this would mean that filling the tank of a vehicle with a capacity of 60 litres would go from the current 85.2 euros to 105 euros, an increase of more than 23 euros that would have a direct effect on inflation on the eve of summer, the time of year that, by far, registers the most private mobility.Experts point out that the price of fuel will take several more months to regularize and to notice the drop in the price of the Brent barrel due to the depletion of strategic reserves that countries have used as an emergency measure to guarantee fuel supply. Finally, it is worth remembering that the different administrations do not look favorably on subsidizing a polluting fuel and that the advice of the European Union must be followed, which advocates concentrating aid and tax incentives on zero-emission electric vehicles.

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The war in the Middle East that began on February 28 with attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran has, obviously, had an economic impact. After four months, and with the agreement between the United States and Iran, it is difficult to quantify the total cost of the war in economic terms. But what is clear is that the impact has fallen directly on citizens' pockets and has weakened economic growth in many areas of the world, especially in Asia-Pacific, with greater dependence on Gulf oil.

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The Spanish economy is holding its ground despite the war in the Middle East, or at least that's what the Bank of Spain projects. The supervisory body estimates that it will grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, as published this Thursday, thus maintaining the growth forecast from last March unchanged. At that time, however, only a few weeks had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. However, despite seeming to save face in a context of strong global uncertainty, there are some "structural problems" that could shake economic activity in the State, among which, once again, access to housing stands out: "It can lead to significant macroeconomic and social effects," according to the Annual Report of 2025Annual Report of 2025 published this Thursday by the supervisory body.

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Housing and inflation are the two main concerns of the Catalan and Spanish population. This is confirmed by the latest Eurobarometer from the European Parliament, where at least one in three respondents in Spain identify access to a home and the rising cost of living as the biggest headaches they have to face in their daily lives. The rising cost of rents and food is changing consumption habits and requires great effort for families – especially the most vulnerable – to adapt to the new reality. A reality that leaves less time for leisure and where any unforeseen event can unbalance a budget with ever-decreasing room for manoeuvre. And among the juggling acts of some families to balance their accounts, the following diagnosis emerges: the economic effort to fill the fridge is growing more than that of paying for housing.

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Supermarkets are claiming their role in containing food prices in the face of increased costs stemming from the Middle East crisis. In a scenario marked by rising fuel, raw materials, fertilizers, and agricultural products, the Spanish Association of Distributors, Self-Services, and Supermarkets (Asedas) boasts: "Despite everything, there is no evidence that any food product has become more expensive due to the Middle East crisis," the organization assures in a statement released this Friday.

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The cost of living in Catalonia moderated last May despite the upward pressures of fuel costs on family economies caused by the energy crisis derived from the war in Iran. Nevertheless, the measures approved by the Spanish government to cut taxes on electricity and natural gas curbed price increases.

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