The war in the Middle East that began on February 28 with attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran has, obviously, had an economic impact. After four months, and with the agreement between the United States and Iran, it is difficult to quantify the total cost of the war in economic terms. But what is clear is that the impact has fallen directly on citizens' pockets and has weakened economic growth in many areas of the world, especially in Asia-Pacific, with greater dependence on Gulf oil.

The Spanish economy is holding its ground despite the war in the Middle East, or at least that's what the Bank of Spain projects. The supervisory body estimates that it will grow by 2.3% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, as published this Thursday, thus maintaining the growth forecast from last March unchanged. At that time, however, only a few weeks had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran had passed since the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. However, despite seeming to save face in a context of strong global uncertainty, there are some "structural problems" that could shake economic activity in the State, among which, once again, access to housing stands out: "It can lead to significant macroeconomic and social effects," according to the Annual Report of 2025Annual Report of 2025 published this Thursday by the supervisory body.

Housing and inflation are the two main concerns of the Catalan and Spanish population. This is confirmed by the latest Eurobarometer from the European Parliament, where at least one in three respondents in Spain identify access to a home and the rising cost of living as the biggest headaches they have to face in their daily lives. The rising cost of rents and food is changing consumption habits and requires great effort for families – especially the most vulnerable – to adapt to the new reality. A reality that leaves less time for leisure and where any unforeseen event can unbalance a budget with ever-decreasing room for manoeuvre. And among the juggling acts of some families to balance their accounts, the following diagnosis emerges: the economic effort to fill the fridge is growing more than that of paying for housing.

Supermarkets are claiming their role in containing food prices in the face of increased costs stemming from the Middle East crisis. In a scenario marked by rising fuel, raw materials, fertilizers, and agricultural products, the Spanish Association of Distributors, Self-Services, and Supermarkets (Asedas) boasts: "Despite everything, there is no evidence that any food product has become more expensive due to the Middle East crisis," the organization assures in a statement released this Friday.

The cost of living in Catalonia moderated last May despite the upward pressures of fuel costs on family economies caused by the energy crisis derived from the war in Iran. Nevertheless, the measures approved by the Spanish government to cut taxes on electricity and natural gas curbed price increases.

The increase in gasoline prices has led inflation in the United States to reach its highest level in three years. According to data published this Wednesday by the Department of Labor, prices in the US rose by 4.2% last May compared to the same month last year.

The cost of living for families has maintained this May the slowdown recorded the previous month, despite the continuation of the war in Iran and instability in energy markets, according to provisional data advanced this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

The effects of the war in Iran continue to tighten the screws on the fruit and vegetable sector, which finds it increasingly difficult to contain the costs of fruit and vegetables. This Wednesday, companies in the sector - through a survey by the main association of manufacturers and distributors in the State (Aecoc) - have warned of the possibility of new price increases in the not-too-distant future if the conflict in the Middle East drags on.

The oil sector has lost the hope that the war in Iran will be shortThe fuel sector is, it must be said, a sector with many intricacies. "Every gas station is a world unto itself," observes Ramon Fitó, owner of the Fitó service station in Badalona, the oldest in Catalonia. The experience, therefore, is not the same for an operator with commercial and storage capacity as it is for a small local chain. Even so, everyone who does not have their own refineries has seen their margins tighten. "We pass on the prices day by day. And, evidently, we have been forced to buy a more expensive product," observes Payá.has left Brent around $110 this weekAnomalous competition

The reduction in electricity and natural gas bills moderated the increase in the cost of living in April, both in Catalonia and in Spain as a whole. The measures approved by the Spanish government to reduce some taxes on electricity and gas had the desired effect, although, on the other hand, the cost of fuel continued to rise due to uncertainty in international energy markets because of the war in Iran.

A 66.5%. This is the accumulated inflation we have suffered between the years 2000 and 2025. In only two of these years, the value of money has remained or increased. The rest of the time, our savings have been losing purchasing power. And you don't need to look twenty-five years back to notice it: you just have to think about the last five. The price of houses, cars, or even eggs has skyrocketed.

When it is said that something can happen, it is likely to end up happening. This expression, used to refer to self-fulfilling prophecies, is common in the economic world. Throughout history, the belief that an event will occur has precipitated events. The list of examples is long: stock market crashes, compulsive consumer purchases, or deposit withdrawals are just a few. And citizens' expectations for controlling inflation are also a factor to consider.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious. The banking institution has once again avoided making a move prematurely and, despite the war in Iran and the rebound in inflation, has decided this Thursday to keep interest rates at 2% for the seventh consecutive meeting. In this way, the financial entity chaired by Christine Lagarde keeps its powder dry in case the situation worsens and, in fact, has already warned of "the high uncertainty" of the Eurozone's economic future due to the war initiated by Donald Trump.

The fiscal measures to reduce the cost of electricity and fuels approved a month ago by the Spanish government have had a positive effect on the prices of goods and services consumed by families, which has allowed to moderate the inflation that had skyrocketed in March as a consequence of the energy crisis derived from the war in Iran.

The fiscal measures to reduce the cost of electricity and fuel approved a month ago by the Spanish government have had a positive effect on the prices of goods and services consumed by families, which has allowed to moderate the inflation that had soared in March as a consequence of the energy crisis derived from the war in Iran.

It's not that anyone's breakfast was getting stuck this morning, but unemployment and inflation have shown their faces, and if the war in Iran continues, they will end up showing their whole face. The rising cost of living is a fact and prospects are for the worse, with prophecies of energy shock and disruption of international trade, including food.

The rise in fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East sent the cost of living soaring in Catalonia and Spain in March, the first month with the war's effects, according to consumer price index (CPI, the indicator that measures the cost of living for families) data published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

Sometimes, a good social response is not a good political response. Lowering VAT on fuels is one of the most common responses –and best received by citizens– when the cost of living rises, as we are experiencing due to the outbreak of the war in Iran. Its effect is immediate and visible and, for this very reason, it often becomes one of the options taken by governments. However, as Brussels has warned, which has questioned Sánchez's reduction, not only its legality but also its effects must be called into question. To what extent have these types of measures become an almost automatic response to episodes of inflation without taking into account their costs and benefits, compared to other less conspicuous, but perhaps more effective, political alternatives?It is not difficult to understand why VAT reductions are attractive. In a context like the current one, marked by rising fuel prices, reducing VAT translates directly into a lower price at the petrol station. It is an easy-to-explain measure, which reaches everyone and is immediately perceived, making it particularly tempting for governments. But this same simplicity is also its limit: not all households benefit equally, and they often end up benefiting those who consume the most. Furthermore, by artificially lowering the price, the measures reduce the incentives to adjust consumption in a context where energy prices remain high and with no clear prospects of reduction., the measures reduce the incentives to adjust consumption in a context where energy prices remain high and with no clear prospects of reduction.They are not, therefore, isolated cases. Our tax system has been accumulating a set of benefits – reduced and super-reduced VAT rates, deductions and exemptions – which, far from forming a coherent system, reduce its revenue and the system's redistributive capacity. They are mechanisms that reach many but often redistribute little, and that end up functioning more as generalized discounts than as instruments of social policy. In this context, there is growing consensus on the need to review these tax benefits and strengthen more direct and better-oriented instruments.The problem is not the lack of instruments, but how we use them. We prioritize visible measures that help diffusely, while the most effective ones often do not arrive. The challenge is not to add more aid, but to ensure that those that work are the ones that are applied. Whether they are popular or not.

The war in Iran does not impact our economy due to our economic and commercial relations with the area, but rather due to the effect on energy markets, especially oil and gas, which it has and will have in the near future. What truly weighs is not Tehran on our trade and our prices, it is Hormuz. We only need to recall the advanced CPI figure for March, 3.3%, one point higher than in February, with no change in the underlying inflation and, therefore, due to the increase in energy prices, in a context of weak growth in Europe and a not negligible slowdown of about one point in Spain and Catalonia, where the average citizen does not perceive growth improvements, per capita income does not change, and where the Treasury will be one of the beneficiaries of this higher inflation given that it does not correct tax progressivity (essentially income tax).

The US economy has been feeling the effects of the war in the Middle East and the escalating price of oil for some time now. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March confirms this and reveals how the impact of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching the pockets of Americans, as it soared to 3.3%, the highest level since May 2024. This rise coincides with market forecasts, which already expected a considerable escalation compared to February's 2.4% as a consequence of high gasoline prices.